With the 2021 NFL regular season just around the corner, the futures market is booming with a near-endless catalog of team and player props. Thankfully, Awesemo and Shawn Zhan have developed a tool specifically designed to tackle the NFL prop bets market: The Awesemo NFL Season Long Player Props Tool. Utilizing the tool, we will explore each major section of the current NFL player futures market to identify the best NFL prop bets and odds available per category.
Past Regular Season Passing Yards Leaders By Year
Although the previous odds and where they settled by the time their respective seasons began are difficult to dig up, we can loosely use the past passing yards leaders as a barometer for the plausible comparisons of then and now.
- 2020: Deshaun Watson, 4,823
- 2019: Jameis Winston, 5,109
- 2018: Ben Roethlisberger, 5,129
- 2017: Tom Brady, 4,577
- 2016: Drew Brees, 5,208
- 2015: Drew Brees, 4,870
- 2014: Drew Brees, 4,952
- 2013: Peyton Manning, 5,477
- 2012: Drew Brees, 5,177
- 2011: Drew Brees, 5,476
NFL Player Props: Best Passing Yards Odds & Bets
- Total Passing Yards Regular Season: Under 3,850.5 Passing Yards (-118, SugarHouse)
The New York Jets selected Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft with very high hopes in mind for their franchise’s future. General Manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh didn’t hold back on surrounding their rookie quarterback with weapons either, as they reeled in wide receivers Corey Davis and Keelan Cole, scatter back Tevin Coleman, tight end Tyler Kroft, in addition to guard Dan Feeney.
Taking a closer look at the Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool we find Wilson with a season passing yards prop line of 3,800 yards, while sportsbooks vary between 3,750.5 and 3,850.5 passing yards at moderate juice (-110, -118). According to the Props Tool, Wilson remains a 66% chance of producing under the assigned prop line while projecting for 3,349 passing yards; a near 500-yard separation from the prop betting lines. The Tool also suggests an estimated 24% return on investment via betting the under.
With all respect to Wilson, coming into a Jets organization that meagerly addressed an offensive line debacle in the offseason doesn’t lend the most confidence toward the rookie’s chances of besting the over on season passing yards. Evidenced by then-quarterback Sam Darnold enduring the eighth-most sacks last season with 35 sacks in 12 starts, he was on pace for passing Daniel Jones (45 sacks) for taking the league’s fourth-most sacks until missing games due to injury.
Drafting Alijah Vera-Tucker in the second round was a step in the right direction toward addressing that protection issue. The Props Tool is taking all of that into account while the insinuation far beneath Wilson’s yardage needed on the over is enough to stay put on the under at fairly minimal juice.
- Total Passing Yards Regular Season: Over 3,900 Passing Yards (+105, SugarHouse)
Again with Ryan Fitzpatrick? The Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool is feeling the Fitzmagic, forecasting the journeyman for an upstart regular season in Washington while facing a 3,900 passing yards player prop line. With a projection of 4,453 passing yards for Fitzpatrick, he’s also tied to a 65% chance of surpassing the over by way of the Props Tool.
Surrounded by the most offensive talent since his brief stint in Tampa Bay (starting 10 games over two seasons), Fitzpatrick’s projected for 23% return on investment based on the Tool’s suggested success rate on the over. Fitzpatrick has exceeded 3,900 passing yards just once in his 16 previous seasons, yet that season also happened to be his last complete 16-game season as a starter (2015 Jets). Now equipped with pass-catcher running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, along with wide receiver Terry McClaurin and tight end Logan Thomas, Fitzpatrick is setup with a solid core of weapons to carve out the passing yardage.
Delving into the sportsbooks featured on OddsShopper, Fitzpatrick is featured at William Hill with a season passing prop line at 3,850.5 passing yards at -110, but the added juice to gain 50 yards just doesn’t seem worth it by comparison to +105 at SugarHouse.
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