With the 2021 NFL regular season just around the corner, the futures market is booming with a near-endless catalog of team and player props. Thankfully, Awesemo has developed a tool specifically designed to tackle the NFL prop bets market: The Awesemo NFL Season Long Player Props Tool. Utilizing the tool, we will explore each major section of the current NFL player futures market to identify the best NFL prop bets and odds available per category. Today, the focus will be trying to find the best touchdown props.
Past Regular Season Touchdown Reception Leaders by Year
Although previous odds are difficult to dig up, bettors can loosely use the past leaders in touchdown receptions as a barometer for the plausible comparisons of then and now.
- 2020: Davante Adams (18)
- 2019: Kenny Golladay (11)
- 2018: Antonio Brown (15)
- 2017: DeAndre Hopkins (13)
- 2016: Jordy Nelson (14)
- 2015: Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson (14)
- 2014: Dez Bryant (16)
- 2013: Jimmy Graham (16)
- 2012: James Jones (14)
- 2011: Rob Gronkowski (17)
NFL Player Props: Best Touchdown Reception Odds & Bets
Jarvis Landry Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+100, William Hill & SugarHouse)
Jarvis Landry is coming off his third season in Cleveland, in which he managed 72 receptions for 840 yards and three touchdowns. The Awesemo Player Props Tool projects Landry to more than double his 2020 touchdown production, with 6.5 touchdowns. Though based on a slightly lower line of 4.7 touchdowns, the tool lends an optimistic projection of 65% odds for Landry to reach the over.
The futures prop for Landry’s 2021 touchdowns is featured on both William Hill and SugarHouse at +100 odds for 5.5 touchdown receptions. Based on the estimated rate of success, the Props Tool also projects a 25% return on investment for the over. Considering the return of the Browns offense in its near entirety, Odell Beckham Jr. presumes to draw coverage off fellow receivers, which should provide plenty of opportunity for Landry to thrive.
George Kittle Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+100, SugarHouse)
Still arguably the top option in San Francisco, tight end George Kittle comes into 2021 with uncertainty surrounding his quarterback(s) and health after playing just eight games last season. Yet when on the field he is among the greatest at his position, and the Awesemo Player Props Tool forecasts as much, projecting Kittle for 7.4 touchdowns this season. With a line of 5.5 touchdowns on even-money odds at SugarHouse, the Props Tool gives Kittle a 66% chance to hit the over and a 24% return on investment.
In his eight games played in 2020, Kittle turned in 48 receptions for 638 yards and two touchdowns on 63 targets. Factoring in the market for Kittle’s season touchdowns, William Hill offers the same 5.5-touchdown line but with house juice at -110 odds.
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