We are getting into the last quarter of the NFL season, which means a lot of things are shaping up. We have a pretty good feel for how most of the divisions are going, and wagers on things like win totals are becoming more difficult bets to find. Still, there are two NFL betting markets and their NFL odds I want to explore heading into Week 12: The shift in the MVP race toward Patrick Mahomes and the dreadful NFC East. Let’s dive into some of the best NFL prop bets and wagers to make after the Week 12 NFL odds shift.
The Awesemo OddsShopper tool helps us identify the best books to place future wagers throughout the season, so make sure you continue to check there for the best place to make your bet before you lock it in. The multi-site dashboard shows real-time lines from several books at once, you can frequently pick-off a better price on a bet you are already about to make.
[MAYFLOWER]
NFL Prop Bets: Player + Team Futures
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (-118)
A few weeks ago we talked about the idea of Mahomes at +450 to win the NFL MVP. Then heading into his bye week, we thought it might be a good idea to bet +220. Before last week, we had a chance to get Mahomes at +200, and most shops had him around +160 by kickoff.
While the Chiefs failed to cover against the Raiders, Mahomes still threw the winning touchdown late. We now have him at -125 for MVP at almost all books — BetMGM is the best price in the industry at -118, per OddsShopper.
Unlike Russell Wilson who was the odds-on favorite at one point, this one isn’t coming back unless Mahomes sustains an injury. The Chiefs could easily wind up winning 14 or 15 games, while Mahomes may throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. That would require some monster games down the stretch, but the quarterback is already on pace for 4,856 yards, 43.2 touchdowns and 3.2 interceptions. There’s no way he will lose the MVP race unless he gets hurt or Kansas City finishes the season 3-3 in its final six games.
Offensive ROY: Justin Herbert (-900)
This isn’t a bet as much as it is just bringing you up to speed on the market. Heading into Week 11, we were pretty close to a pick-’em between Herbert and Joe Burrow. Herbert was even odds, while Burrow could be had at up to +150 at some shops. One massive knee injury later and Herbert is now -900 at FanDuel. There is simply no point in betting this unless you like a longshot. Tua Tagovailoa sits at +1000, and Justin Jefferson is +900. As spectacular as Jefferson has been, catching Herbert would likely require another unfortunate injury.
NFC East
The Eagles were creeping up to -400 territory to win the division before crippling losses to the Giants and Browns made this a race again. Now the Eagles sit as 5.5-point underdogs to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Just behind them in the standings, the Giants are 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals, while Washington plays in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Washington – Dallas game should end in a victory for one team at least, helping sort out the division, although a tie would be great.
Here are the best odds you can get on each team:
- Eagles (+155, DraftKings)
- Cowboys (+250, multiple books)
- Giants (+350 multiple books)
- Washington (+440, Sugar House)
The Football Team is my favorite bet at the moment. These teams all have three wins, so why not? Washington has the best defense in the division, which should mean something when they play division foes in crucial games down the stretch. I also expect the Thanksgiving game to mean something, when the Football Team has a chance to win as a 3-point road dog.
If you like the Giants, now is the time to buy them. I actually think the most likely path has them in first place on Tuesday morning. If Washington comes through and the Giants win as the biggest favorites in the division this weekend, New York gets the tiebreaker over Washington because of their two head-to-head wins.
There is a lot to consider with this bet. The NFC East is alone on the board with the most realistic remaining value.
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