Joe Burrow slayed the dragon at Arrowhead and now must seize the moment as the Cincinnati Bengals head to Super Bowl to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. With the help of OddsShopper, bettors can now search NFL player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available current odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the expert projections and NFL betting odds for Super Bowl 56 to book the best NFL prop bets on Burrow’s big stage moment.
Best Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets: Joe Burrow Betting Picks
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Over 274.5 Yards Passing (-111, SugarHouse)
Burrow has turned it on against stifling defenses through the playoffs, yet the Rams propose his stiffest challenge yet. Burrow averaged 288.2 yards passing in the regular season, 280.7 in the playoffs, and he projects for 294.5 yards. OddsShopper gives the over here a 55% expected win rate and 5% return on investment. The Rams allowed 260.88 yards passing per game in the regular season and 232.66 in the playoffs, and they were sixth in pass DVOA. Cincinnati had the third-best PFF pass grade, and Burrow threw for 348 yards against a Tennessee pass rush that sacked him six times in the Divisional Round. That lends promise to his chances against Aaron Donald and company. At standard juice in what could feasibly shift to a shootout by the second half, the over on Burrow’s yardage has great value.
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Over 24.5 Completions (+105, Caesars)
Burrow has cranked up the completions since Week 16, leading to a razor-thin difference in completion projection and the betting line. Burrow averaged 22.87 regular-season completions per game, 25 in the playoffs, and projects for 24.6 completions. OddsShopper gives the over a 48% expected win rate and -1% return on investment. Los Angeles allowed 24.35 completions per game and ranked 12 in PFF coverage grade. Burrow’s completion volume through the playoffs can be partly merited to the Cincinnati backfield, as the tandem of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine combined for a 20.38% target share of the Bengals offense, including 22.66% of the Bengals’ receptions throughout the playoffs on 17 combined receptions. The Rams are assassins behind the line of scrimmage, ranking first in PFF pass rush grade, though they have a weakness against running backs game — 24th in pass DVOA against the position. With plus-money odds in a scenario where he could be checking down often, the over on Burrow’s completion total is intriguing for Sunday’s stage.
Under 1.5 Touchdowns Passing (+130, Caesars)
Given the previous two props, the under on Burrow’s touchdowns goes against the grain. However, the win in Tennessee showed that such an outcome is definitely possible. Burrow averaged 2.12 regular-season touchdowns passing per game, and he projects for 1.73 touchdowns this week, leading to a 51% expected win rate and 17% return on investment from OddsShopper. Los Angeles ranks 12th in opponent red-zone scoring, as they have allowed touchdowns to 54.10% of opponent red-zone drives this season. The Rams have also surrendered less than one touchdown per game, including playoffs, with 0.95 per game. They have also allowed the second-fewest touchdowns, including their playoff touchdowns allowed (19 total). Burrow has seen an uptick in completions and yardage over the second half of the season into the playoffs, though the offensive drives have settled for Evan McPherson’s leg more often this postseason. While one could very easily prop party parlay Burrow’s completions for some sizable payouts, it may be better as a standalone hedge to the previous two wagers while still being able to cover all three Burrow props.
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