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Optimal Betting Picks for Patrick Mahomes Tonight: Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets Broncos vs. Chiefs

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Patrick Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs back atop the AFC West as the visiting Denver Broncos head to Arrowhead Stadium hoping to stake claim in the division on Sunday Night Football. With the new Awesemo OddsShopper, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let us take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Week 13 Sunday Night Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Mahomes tonight.

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Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props Sunday Night Football

With the latest groundbreaking features in sports betting featured in OddsShopper, finding your best bets has never been as easy as it is now. With the ability to simply filter, sort and bet, you can now land the best bets and odds in 30 seconds or less. You can even create a Prop Party Parlay with a mix of your own favorite props of the day.

Under 25.5 Completions (-114, FanDuel)

Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs offense starting to click, yet the OddsShopper tool suggests he may have trouble surpassing a lofty completion prop on Sunday night. Mahomes is averaging 26.72 completions of 40.81 pass attempts per game in spite of a 58% expected win rate for the under. Mahomes is projected for 24.91 completions on 40.4 pass attempts against the Broncos, lending to a 9% expected return on investment for the under.

The Broncos rank 18th in defensive pass DVOA by Football Outsiders while surrendering just 19.81 completions per game for an NFL second best 58.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Mahomes currently represents his career worst 65.5% completion rate with a 20th ranked passing offense by Pro Football Focus. At just above standard juice, grab the under on Mahomes’ completions.

Over 15.5 Yards Rushing (-135, PointsBet)

Although the OddsShopper tool doesn’t have projected win rates for Mahomes’ rushing props, he’s managed to have his best season on the ground in regards to rushing yardage thus far. Mahomes is averaging 21.6 rushing yards on four carries per game and has established a 17.6% rushing share in the Chiefs backfield. Mahomes is projected for 24.29 rushing yards of 4.53 carries on Sunday Night Football, further projecting for 20.4% of the Chiefs’ rushing yardage against the Broncos.

Denver ranks 26th in defensive rush DVOA and have allowed 18.18 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  Denver also ranks 25th in defensive pass rush by Pro Football Focus, where Mahomes has manufactured 23.09 scramble yards (undesigned run) per game this season. Despite the mild spend up, book the over on Mahomes’ rushing yards.


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Under 2.5 Touchdowns Passing (-179, Caesars)

While his passing touchdown rate is down from last season (5.6% from 6.5%), Mahomes draws a lofty player prop of that variety against the Broncos on Sunday night. Mahomes is averaging 2.27 passing touchdowns per game while the under projects for a 63% expected win rate. As Mahomes is projected for 2.12 passing touchdowns against the Broncos, the under draws a meager -2% expected return on investment. The Broncos are allowing just 1.36 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks while managing 10 interceptions in 11 games. Considering the unsavory Props Tool projections on a steep touchdown prop, particularly at stifled house juice, it may be best to avoid this one.

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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