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Patrick Mahomes Sunday Night Football Prop Bets: Expert Picks & Predictions for Week 5, Bills vs. Chiefs

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WEek 6 NFL DFS Stacks DraftKings FanDuel daily fantasy football ownership projections rankings advice optimal lineup optimizer free expert tips strategy plays Patrick Mahomes Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-2, yet the offense is starting to roll in time for a prime-time matchup against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. With the new Awesemo NFL Player Props Tool, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Sunday Night Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes Week 5 Sunday Night NFL Player Props

Under 26.5 Completions (-120, BetMGM)

Mahomes props for Sunday Night Football should be closely contested on both sides, according to the NFL Player Props Tool. He is averaging 25.5 completions per game this season, and the tool anticipates a similar performance, giving the under a 60% expected win rate. Mahomes projects for 25.47 completions against the Bills and a suggested 10% return on investment for the under. The Bills defense ranks third in completions allowed and first in pass DVOA. Snag the under on Mahomes completions at moderate juice in what should be a close game.

Travis Kelce Under 89.5 Yards Receiving (-114, FanDuel)

Travis Kelce is leading all tight ends in yards through four games, yet he has a prop that is a bit too high. Kelce is averaging 78.5 yards per game, and the NFL Player Props Tool gives the under a 63% expected win rate on 89.5 yards. Kelce projects for 80.46 on 6.27 receptions and a 19% return on investment.

Kelce has managed over 89 yards on two occasions this season, with each matching his season high of seven catches. The Bills defense ranks third in pass DVOA against tight ends while surrendering just 35.5 yards per game to the position. The props tool suggests playing the under on FanDuel, which has the best odds (just a hair ahead of PointsBet’s -115).

Tyreek Hill Under 7.5 Receptions (-150, PointsBet)

Tyreek Hill is an obvious favorite of Mahomes’ targets, but the props tool anticipates staunch coverage by the Bills secondary. Despite Hill’s 7.5 receptions per game, the NFL Player Props Tool gives the under a 75% expected win rate. Hill is projected for 5.95 receptions, and the under has a suggested 26% return on investment.

Hill has been impressive as usual, with a near-200-yard game to start the season against Cleveland and ranking third among wide receivers in yards receiving. Yet the Bills defense has been as stout as ever, ranking first in DVOA and pass DVOA while surrendering the fourth-fewest receptions to wide receivers. The heightened line combined with a stifling Bills defense makes the projection difficult to ignore.


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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