The stage is set for Patrick Mahomes and Derrick Henry as the 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs head to Nissan Stadium to battle the 4-2 Tennessee Titans in a 2019 AFC Championship Game rematch. With the new Awesemo NFL Player Props Tool, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Sunday NFL Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Mahomes and Henry.
Week 7 Sunday NFL Player Props
Derrick Henry Under 19.5 Yards Receiving (-110, Caesars)
Henry is having yet another remarkable season on the ground, and the NFL Player Props Tool believes against the Chiefs on Sunday. Despite Henry averaging 23 yards receiving per game, the props tool gives the under a 76% expected win rate and 45% return on investment. The Kansas City defense has surrendered 55.5 yards receiving per game to opposing running backs and ranks 26th in pass DVOA against the position. Yet Henry has just 6.5 yards and 1.5 targets per game in the past two weeks. Take the minimal house juice on the under.
Patrick Mahomes Under 325.5 Yards Passing (-120, BetMGM)
Mahomes has fared well despite turnovers this season, though the NFL Player Props Tool expects he could struggle to meet such a high prop line. Mahomes is averaging 314.5 yards per game, and the props tool gives the under a 75% expected win rate. With Mahomes projected for 313.42 yards and 26.36 completions on 40.5 attempts, the under has a 37% expected return on investment. Tennessee’s pass defense has surrendered 291.5 yards passing per game and ranks 27th in pass DVOA. The ask is a bit much to go over with a Chiefs offense shifting more toward short pass plays and the running game as they adapt against opposing defenses prioritizing the deep ball.
Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Touchdowns Passing (+125, PointsBet)
The Mahomes touchdown prop walks a fine line, but plus money and the NFL Player Props Tool speak volumes to the under. Mahomes is averaging three touchdowns per game through six games, and the props tool gives the under a 63% expected win rate. As Mahomes is projected for 2.42 touchdowns against the Titans, the under has a 38% return on investment. The Titans have surrendered two touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, while Mahomes had two touchdowns in each of the past two weeks. Take the under at plus money odds before line movement comes into play.
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