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Justin Herbert Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Expert Picks & Predictions for Week 4, Raiders vs. Chargers

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Justin Herbert is no longer a surprise to anyone, while his Chargers have caught some off guard with a 2-1 record. With the new Awesemo NFL Player Props Tool, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Monday Night Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Herbert.

Justin Herbert Week 4 Monday Night NFL Player Props

Herbert Under 302.5 Yards Passing (-115, DraftKings)

Herbert has found success in the passing game, yet the NFL Player Props Tool suggests he will come up short of the lofty player prop, with a 56% expected win rate on under 302.5 yards passing. Herbert projects for 296.02 yards on Monday Night Football, and the under has a 4% expected ROI. He has thrown for 318.66 yards per game, but the Raiders secondary ranks 11th in pass DVOA and has allowed just 248.33 yards passing per game. With a 16-yard pad between projection and player prop, snag the under at modest house juice.

Herbert Under 27.5 Completions (-120, BetMGM)

The NFL Player Props Tool is not high on Herbert’s numbers tonight, giving the under on 27.5 completions a 71% chance to hit and a 30% suggested ROI. Herbert has 29.33 completions per game through three, but again, the Raiders defense has allowed just 26. As a result, Awesemo is projecting Herbert for just 25.32 completions tonight. Given the elevated prop line in a divisional grind, this bet points strongly to the under.

Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-250, FanDuel)

Herbert’s completions and passing yardage do not project to exceed their prop lines, but the NFL Player Props Tool is higher on his passing touchdowns, with a 67% expect win rate on the over. Projected for 2.21 passing touchdowns, Herbert has a -7% expected ROI, with the juice through the roof at -250 on such a low prop line. He is averaging two touchdowns passing per game this season and leads the NFL with 27 red-zone completions. The Raiders have allowed just two touchdowns passing in three games. With Herbert’s red zone success, siding with the props tool’s projection on a low total makes sense.


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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