The 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) mirrors its offensive counterpart with two players listed as heavy favorites — Chase Young and Isaiah Simmons — and a lot of players with long odds. Using the award’s history, we can get a good idea of what previous winners have looked like and project whose odds are worth betting.
New Trends in DROY Winners
Recent years have greatly changed the dynamics surrounding this award. From 2000 to 2009, eight linebackers won the award. Only two linebackers won in the ensuing decade. Two corners have won the award since then, and the rest of the winners have been some form of pass rusher (defensive tackles, defensive ends or edge linebackers). The NFL’s shift to a pass-first league has rendered the run-stopping, tackle-accumulating linebacker obsolete in the context of this award. Darius Leonard is the most recent linebacker to win, taking it home in 2018. Only three defensive players were taken in the first 10 picks of the draft in 2019, and none were top-three selections. The current crop of rookies features five top-10 picks, two of whom were taken before the fourth spot.
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.
Other Notable Stats
Unlike NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, high draft capital is a complete requirement for DROY and should greatly influence the odds. Every winner in the last 20 years has been selected in the top 40 picks, and only three have even been drafted in the second round. The average draft pick of the winner has been 13.1.
Offensive players produce easy counting stats, and quarterbacks specifically contribute more to their team’s win total. That makes it easier to pick out the long shots that hit. Defensive players don’t have this luxury. Defense doesn’t get the same coverage in the national media, and the players don’t produce the same easily digested numbers as their offensive counterparts. That leads the Associated Press voters to lean more on draft capital when choosing a DROY.
The No. 2 pick has been the sweet spot for DROY winners, producing four in the last two decades. In that time span, only two defensive players have been selected second and not won. The data is clear; bet on blue chip players who can disrupt the quarterback.
3. C.J. Henderson, +2600
Henderson comes in as the third-best value but is a distant third. He fits a number of important criteria. Jacksonville selected Henderson with the ninth overall pick, and he can affect the passing-game unlike a handful of inside linebackers and run-stopping tackles taken in the first round. Kenneth Murray and Jordyn Brooks were selected outside of the top 20 picks and didn’t generate sacks at the collegiate level. They both have shorter odds than Henderson.
Jaguars newest CB C. J. Henderson only allowed one career TD in single coverage at Floridapic.twitter.com/ef7RsebNPC
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 24, 2020
Henderson isn’t a free-money bet, but his odds illustrate why the DROY market is so beatable. The No. 2 best bet is the only reason to put more money down on long-shot Henderson. Because DROY is heavily dictated by draft capital, there’s no reason to look for a higher-payout option than Henderson.
2. Jeff Okudah, +2100
Did no one tell the bookmakers that Okudah was drafted by Detroit with the third overall pick? His +2100 odds are in line with players taken at the end of the first round. Okudah comes from DB University (Ohio State), which produced the most recent cornerback DROY winner, Marshon Lattimore.
Okudah compares favorably to Lattimore as well. In their final seasons, Okudah matched Lattimore in passes defended and forced fumbles while coming up two tackles and an interception shy. Scouts universally compared Okudah to Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey finished second in DROY voting following his rookie season.
Okudah begins his NFL career with a string of soft opponents as well, increasing the chance he beats the +2100 odds even further. The Lions’ secondary faces the sixth-easiest schedule based on opponent yards per pass attempt.
That tends to happen when you face Washington, Jacksonville and Chicago twice. Okudah is going to terrorize bad quarterbacks frequently in his rookie season. His +2100 odds might be a typo.
1. Chase Young, +240
Young being the favorite is obvious and doesn’t necessarily make him a value at +240 odds. What does make him a value is how incredibly dominant he was at Ohio State. Young dropped 16.5 sacks as a junior and forced seven fumbles. Both marks led the nation.
Another thing working in Young’s favor is Isaiah Simmons being his biggest competition for the award. Simmons owns the second-highest odds to win DROY (+550). He wasn’t the second defensive player drafted and is projected to primarily play linebacker for the Cardinals. Recent years suggest that playing linebacker makes a player an easy fade unless the payout is big. Simmons has the ability to play safety and rush the passer, but Arizona would need to commit him to one of those two roles for his odds to be reasonable.
Early camp reports indicate that he’ll start the year as an interior linebacker. If that’s the case, his odds are being wildly inflated at the expense of Young. Buy the shortest odds with Young and fade relics of the NFL’s run-heavy past.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Need more sports betting information? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.
