NFL Odds: The 5 Best NFL Picks to Win 2020 NFL MVP | Mahomes + Newton + Murray

The AP NFL Most Valuable Player is handed out the weekend before the Super Bowl to the “most valuable” player during the regular season. The best part about the event isn’t the pageantry nor the honor inherent in the award. It’s cashing a 100-1 MVP bet on Lamar Jackson on a slip of paper now worth many times its weight in gold. Below,  we’ll be dissecting the NFL Odds and the best NFL picks to win the 2020 NFL MVP by using Awesemo’s very own OddsShopper tool.


Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.


Recent MVP History

The award has been dominated by quarterbacks in recent years. A passer has won MVP for seven consecutive years and has taken it home in 10 of the past 11 years. Only quarterbacks and running backs have won the award, with four backs and 17 passers winning since 2000 (Steve McNair and Peyton Manning tied in 2003).

The median number of wins for the team of an MVP has been 13, and the most common outcome for the team is a Super Bowl appearance. No MVP has won the Super Bowl in the past 20 seasons, but ballots are sent in immediately following the regular season.

Repeats are uncommon unless the winner is an all-time great. Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (2) and Tom Brady (3) all have multiple MVP awards in the past two decades. Kurt Warner also nabbed two in the past 21 years.

Lastly, MVPs come from teams with modest expectations. The median win total for the team of an MVP is 9.5 before the year starts. Their median Super Bowl odds are +1,200. Longshot teams are a fine NFL pick as well. Eight of the 21 teams with an MVP had +2,000 or greater odds at the beginning of the year.

NFL Odds + NFL Picks to Win 2020 NFL MVP

5. Patrick Mahomes (+400)

There are a handful of players who could repeat as an MVP this year, but Mahomes is the only one who appears as a worthwhile bet on this list. Betting on Mahomes is a bet on him becoming the next Manning; the perennial favorite with a gulf between him and the next-best option. Mahomes is that player. For players with 1,000 pass attempts, he ranks first all-time in adjusted yards per attempt (9.2), QB rating (108.9) and yards per game (303.6), among a slew of other stats. The Chiefs added a first-round back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Mecole Hardman gets another year in the offense under his belt. There’s still room for this team to improve making +400 palatable but not the best MVP bet possible.

4. Cam Newton (+7,000)

Most books have the same number listed for Mahomes, so there’s not much line shopping to be done with him. After Russell Wilson and Jackson, the lines begin to vary widely from book to book. Getting the best odds is the easiest way to gain an edge. Newton exemplifies that better than any other player on this list. His best odds are +7,000 (1.4% win probability), but most books have his number at +3,000 (3.2%).

Patrick Mahomes is atop the NFL odds to win NFL MVP, and we give you the best NFL picks to bet on to win NFL MVP | Josh Allen, Kyler Murray

Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.


Newton missed all of 2019 with a foot injury, but 2018 was quietly one of his best seasons. His 67.9% completion rate was a career high, and he earned a +2.5% completion percentage over expectation (based on the depth of his throws). The 2018 season marked the first time ever he went positive in that category. At 29, Newton was still carrying the ball 7.2 times per game.

With the Patriots, Newton now has the best defense he has ever played with in his corner. He could also see his rushing number jump. New England has finished in the top half of the league in run-play percentage in three of the past four years. All of this is greatly aided by the lofty win projection for the Patriots. All oddsmakers have them as a favorite to go over nine wins. If Newton puts up some counting stats and the Patriots soundly beat that win total, he’ll be in the conversation as one of the best NFL picks for MVP.

3. Kyler Murray (+3,300)

The calculus for placing a Murray MVP bet is simple; he’s always been a gifted passer, and now his offense has taken a monumental leap forward. Murray threw 42 touchdowns to just seven interceptions in his lone season at Oklahoma. Then he managed a 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt in his rookie season behind an awful offensive line.

Now the team adds DeAndre Hopkins and third-round lineman Josh Jones. Some scouts, including Arizona’s, had Jones rated as a fringe first-round prospect while Hopkins is arguably the league’s best receiver. It’s easy to see how Murray could ascend into an elite passer.

As for the wins needed to take home MVP, Murray led Arizona to two competitive games with the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers. Both were within one score until the final seconds of the game. With improvement from Murray, the Cardinals have the potential to knock off anyone in their path.

2. Josh Allen (+6,600)

Allen is an inaccurate passer at best but that hasn’t stopped him from accruing. It also hasn’t stopped his team from winning. The Bills notched 10 wins last year nearly upset the Texans in the Wild Card Round. Allen threw 20 touchdown passes, but more importantly, he found the end zone nine times on the ground. Two things need to happen for Allen to have a shot at an MVP. He needs to progress as a passer and the Bills need to take down the AFC East title.

Increasing his accuracy is a tall order, but he’s already done so once. From 2018 to 2019, his completion percentage went up six percent and he gained an extra 1.3 adjusted yards per attempt. If he can make more incremental steps as a thrower, a season where the finds the end zone 40 times between the ground and air is possible.

An AFC East title means that the Bills likely would have knocked off New England once while sweeping the Dolphins and Jets. The Bills ending New England’s reign on the back of Allen would go a long way in netting him votes for the media-driven award.

1. Dak Prescott (+2,000)

The Cowboys offense is poised for a warpath in 2020. Prescott led the offense to a league-high 6.5 yards per play in 2019. He did this despite playing under Jason Garrett who would go on to get fired at the end of the year. Now the team will be helmed by Mike McCarthy. The f0rmer Packers head coach overhauled his NFL philosophies in a year off including his embracing of analytics. Dallas then added CeeDee Lamb with the 17th pick of the draft. Lamb has the stunning athleticism and history of production the make a splash in year one.

Prescott and the Cowboys also face weak competition within their division. Both the Giants and Washington were bottom-five in point-differential last year. Even the division-winning Eagles failed to crack the top-10. Prescott is the best NFL pick to win MVP when factoring in the odds available on him versus the chance he actually wins MVP.


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Author
If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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