There’s no bigger trap when it comes to NFL betting then Week 2. The recent sample size of data is too small to draw any conclusion from, yet it seems like bettors and bookmakers can’t help but overreact to what they just saw. Point spreads for Sunday’s games have shifted wildly from the lookahead lines, which presents an opportunity to pick off some soft numbers. With the help of Awesemo’s sports betting tool, we’ve identified three of the best expert NFL picks against the spread wagers to target, so check out the NFL bets below.
Best NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 2
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Falcons (+12.5)
It’s understandably hard to pull the trigger on Atlanta after the egg they laid against Philadelphia, but let’s give Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith another week to iron things out. Odds are, they’re nowhere near as bad as they looked last week, and at the very least, they’re capable of getting pressure on Tom Brady.
New defensive co-ordinator Dean Pees loves nothing more than to dial up blitzes and that’s exactly what Atlanta did last week. Only six teams sent five or more rushers more frequently than the Falcons, and they forced the fourth most QB hurries per drop back.
If there’s one way to slow down Brady, and let’s be honest there may only be one way, it’s to pressure him. Brady averaged three fewer yards per attempt under duress last season, while completing only 40.9% of his passes, and throwing more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). In Week 1 against Dallas, he completed 4-of-10 passes under pressure, and averaged just 2.4 yards per attempt.
Of course, when Brady is kept clean, he picks teams apart, so Pees better have some exotic schemes dialed up to get home.
Ryan meanwhile, failed to throw for 166 yards for the first time in 24 regular-season starts in Week 1, but had plenty of success against the Bucs defense last season. He led Atlanta to an average of 27 points in their two meetings, and number one receiver Calvin Ridley has racked up 24 receptions for 300 yards and two scores in three career games against Tampa Bay.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games as a double-digit dog, and are by far the biggest value in the Awesemo sports betting model.
Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars (+6)
Another glaring value is the Jaguars, who can be had at +6 against the Broncos by shopping for the best lines with OddsShopper.
Simply put, this line is too high, especially when you consider the lookahead line was only Denver -2.5. Everyone and their mother was racing to bet Jacksonville last week, and it took only one poor performance for the bandwagon to be completely deserted.
There’s no arguing that Denver boasts an elite pass rush, but the Jags returned all five starters from last year’s offensive line, and may face a Broncos team minus Bradley Chubb.
Trevor Lawrence’s NFL debut got off script in a hurry, but he still managed to throw for 332 yards and three scores, despite five drops. The rookie’s matchup is tough, but he has three excellent receivers to throw to, and continuity on the offensive line in front of him.
The Broncos are 7-14-2 against the spread as a favorite since 2017, and it makes sense to fade a team that the public is backing on 86% of the spread tickets as of Thursday.
Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts: Colts (+4)
Last, but not least, of our expert NFL picks against the spread is the Colts. The best available line through OddsShopper has Carson Wentz & Co., as 4-point home underdogs against the Rams. Indianapolis was actually a 1.5-point favorite on the lookahead line prior to Week 1, yet all anyone seems to remember is the beatdown LA delivered on Chicago on Sunday Night Football.
Let’s not forget the Colts boast a stacked front seven and were one of only five teams to be ranked in the top-12 in both defensive and offensive DVOA in 2020.
Say what you want about Wentz, but he operated quite efficiently in his Colts debut, completing 65.8% of his passes for 251 yards and two scores. Indianapolis doesn’t want to lean too heavily on Wentz, and would prefer run the football, and that’s an area of the Rams defense that can be exploited. LA has surrendered over 130 yards rushing and 5.2 yards per attempt in each of its past three games dating back to last season.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams were Pro Football Focus’ top graded offense in Week 1, but let’s see how they do travelling across the country, for an early kickoff, in a hostile environment, before we crown them the kings of the NFC.
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