There’s a narrative floating around NFL betting circles that home field advantage is nowhere near as important as it used to be. Well, we’re going to test that theory this week. With the help of Awesemo’s sports betting tool, we’ve identified three of the best expert NFL picks against the spread wagers to target, and the first happens to be a road favorite. The betting card starts with the Seahawks, so check out why Seattle represents value in Week 3, plus see the rest of the NFL bets below.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Best Bets
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings: Seahawks (-1.5)
Seattle enters play ranked third in passing DVOA through two weeks and should absolutely feast on the Minnesota defense. The Vikings have surrendered an average of 30.5 points per game this season, and 294 passing yards per contest.
Minnesota boasts Pro Football Focus’ fourth-lowest graded pass rush, and have allowed opposing QBs to complete 78% of their passes. That’s music to Russell Wilson’s ears, who has already thrown for 596 yards and six touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Dalvin Cook hasn’t practiced all week, while Kirk Cousins is likely to be under serious duress. The Vikings check in with the 19th-ranked pass blocking unit, per PFF, while the Seahawks have managed a top-10 sack rate and top-five QB hit rate so far.
Seattle is 14-6-2 against the spread in its past 22 games when the line falls between -3 and +3. Only the New York Jets have a worse ATS mark than Minnesota dating back to the start of last season.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Colts (+5.5)
Next up, is the Indianapolis Colts, who can be found as 5.5-point underdogs against the Titans.
Simply put, this line is too high, especially when you consider how bad Tennessee’s defense is. Only the Falcons and Lions have surrendered more points than the Titans this season, while Tennessee’s pass rush and run defense are bottom-11 units, per PFF.
The big injury news for this game is the status of Carson Wentz, who will start despite having sprained both ankles a week ago. Fortunately for him, the Titans’ anemic pass rush and dreadful secondary shouldn’t post too much resistance. Tennessee has already coughed up 600 yards and six touchdowns through the air, and is yielding 10 yards per pass attempt.
Derrick Henry was unleashed in Week 2, but his outlook in Week 3 isn’t as favorable on paper against Indianapolis’ top-eight graded run defense. The NFL’s reigning rushing king has failed to eclipse 103 rushing yards in four of his past six meetings with the Colts; and Indianapolis is a perfect 3-0 straight up in Tennessee since Frank Reicht took over the team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams: Rams (+1.5)
The last game on the betting card is arguably the best contest of the entire slate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Los Angeles Rams, with the best available line through OddsShopper showing Matthew Stafford & Co., as 1.5-point home underdogs against the defending champs.
These two teams rank second and third, respectively, in overall DVOA, with the Rams being the only team to rank top-five in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
Don’t let Tampa Bay’s victory last week fool you. On paper, it looks like a blowout 48-25 win over Atlanta, but in reality it was a one-score game with 7 minutes left before Matt Ryan threw a pair of pick-sixes. The Bucs have been outgained in back-to-back outings, and even though Tom Brady is still defying the age-model, there’s reason to be bearish on him and Tampa Bay this week.
Brady was held to the lowest completion percentage of his Bucs tenure when these teams met last season, while LA racked up 376 passing yards in a 27-24 victory. That was with Jared Goff steering the ship, and needless to say, Stafford is a major upgrade.
The former No. 1 pick is PFF’s third-highest graded quarterback through two games, averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, and posting a 5-1 TD-to-interception rate.
Tampa’s defense has yielded the third-most passing yards in the NFL, and will be without stud pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.
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