The marquee matchup on the Week 5 NFL slate is undoubtedly the Bills vs. Chiefs contest. The top two AFC contenders in the Super Bowl futures market will clash on Sunday Night Football, and everyone and their mother seems to be on Buffalo. The Bills are currently garnering 75% of the moneyline handle, but let’s not forget who’s on the other sideline. Patrick Mahomes is on pace for the highest completion percentage and passer rating of his career, and no matter how bad the Chiefs defense may be, fading Mahomes is always a dangerous proposition. With the help of Awesemo’s sports betting tool, we’ve identified the best expert NFL picks against the spread to target in this matchup, so check out the NFL bets below.
Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5 Sunday Night Football
The spread for the Bills-Chiefs game opened at KC -3, but can be found at Chiefs -2.5 by shopping for the best lines at Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool.
KC underwhelmed in Weeks 2 and 3, suffering back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Ravens, but rebounded nicely in Week 4 with a convincing 42-30 victory in Philadelphia.
The Chiefs offense is arguably the most talented in football, ranking first in yards per play and second in points per game. Mahomes has already racked up 14 passing touchdowns through three games, and is fresh off a five-touchdown performance against the Eagles. His top-two weapons Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce continue to torment defenses, combining for seven scores already, while grading out as top-2 players at their respective positions, per Pro Football Focus.
Scoring is never the problem with KC, it’s keeping the other team out of the end zone. The Chiefs boast the NFL’s second worst scoring defense, and rank 31st in yards per play. They’ve allowed at least 29 points in every game this season, and are one of only three teams with a defensive grade below 50, per PFF.
On paper, Buffalo should be able to march up and down the field versus this unit, but there’s reason to be slightly pessimistic on the Bills offensive outlook.
Josh Allen is off to a slow start, posting just one game with more than 270 passing yards, and boasts a significantly lower average yards per attempt and QBR from a season ago. Allen is averaging 1.2 fewer yards per attempt this season, and his completion percentage is down six points from 2020. Outside of the season opener against Pittsburgh, Allen’s underwhelming numbers have not been an issue because of Buffalo’s incredible defensive performance.
The Bills lead in the NFL in scoring defense and opponent yards per game, while ranking first in pass defense DVOA and second against the run. Before we start comparing them to the ’86 Bears, however, it’s important to realize who they’ve played.
Buffalo’s first four opponents (Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston) are a combined 5-11, and each rank bottom-nine in offensive efficiency, per PFF. Taylor Heinicke is the highest-graded quarterback they’ve faced, and while this defense has been impressive so far, they’re in for a rude awakening when they face Mahomes and the Chiefs.
In two games against the Bills last season, the Chiefs put up 64 points and 905 yards of offense. KC won both matchups convincingly, and while this game projects to be a tighter affair, the Chiefs are incredibly undervalued.
Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread in his career when favored by less than 3.5 points, and boasts a 40-to-9 TD-to-INT rate under the prime time lights.
Week 5 Sunday Night Football Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
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