We continue to round out an epic Week 7 in the NFL with a Monday Night Football matchup between the host Los Angeles Rams and visiting Chicago Bears, who are each trying to solidify their identities and skeptics of their winning records. As we typically do while using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool to identify best bets available making our NFL picks for Monday Night Football, we’ll break down some prop bet scenarios based on season stats to find any potential soft spots in the current betting lines.
The Chicago Bears are 5-1 and making Matt Nagy’s decision to opt in on quarterback Nick Foles over Mitchell Trubisky appear that much brighter given their recent successes, most notably in spots where they’ve faltered in recent years. However, the Bears still have plenty of analysts and fans questioning how truth-telling those glimpses of successful turnaround are in actuality. The Los Angeles Rams find themselves in a rather identical scenario sans quarterback carousel, with a 4-2 record in a pivotal time for Sean McVay where his seat would be much hotter given a situation any less the optimistic. A win on Monday Night Football against this one-loss Bears squad would further cement McVay’s future as head coach of the Rams (at least in the shorter term scope) while keeping Los Angeles in stride to contend for the stiff NFC West competition among the Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers.
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NFL Picks + Odds Shopping: Monday Night Football Best Bets | Bears vs. Rams
NFL Pick: RB David Montgomery, OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
While Foles has been notarized as a catalyst for success since his improbable Super Bowl 52 MVP performance with the Philadelphia Eagles, his surrounding castmates in Chicago still have yet to be associated with such benefit of the doubt in the public eye (rightfully so given their recent postseason history). Yet sophomore running back David Montgomery has been recently demonstrating his multi-faceted talents in both the running game and as a reliable pass catcher. Montgomery’s receiving-yard proposition featured for tonight’s iteration of Monday Night Football incorporates rather modest juice on just a 22.5-yard total.
Montgomery has been the fourth-most targeted member of the Bears offense on average since Foles’ takeover under center, and he has been as much as the second-most targeted in a given game (19% target share vs. Tampa Bay). Although he isn’t running routes outside of the dump-off, safety net role (as most running backs do), the factor for success is very much intact, while Montgomery has a 0% drop-rate of all 20 catchable targets thrown his way this season. Montgomery is also averaging 8.2 yards per catch on 3.3 receptions per game, while the receptions have gradually increased week after week under the Foles-guided offense.
In his past three games, Montgomery has totaled at least 30 receiving yards in each outing while seeing his snap count percentage skyrocket since the inclusion of Foles at quarterback to 83.76% in his past three weeks from a previous 51.5% average under Trubisky (granted, Tarik Cohen was still present at the time to snag some of that snap share). The Rams are allowing 50.83 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs on 37 total receptions, displaying a wide window of opportunity for Montgomery to shine in the passing game. With a Rams pass rush that will likely be besting the Bears offensive line on a bulk of plays this evening, Montgomery’s demonstrated success in the dump-off role as Foles’ bail-out option should prove effective in covering this low-yardage prop at moderate house juice of -115.
NFL Pick: RB David Montgomery, OVER 3.5 Receptions (+101, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
Going hand in hand with our first prop bet identified with strong potential, getting a relative reception total that would be correlative to our receiving-yardage prop appears to not only be an ideal avenue to cash our tickets is all the more welcome at plus money. That is the scenario here, as a proposition for Montgomery’s total receptions of four or more will put in palm the +101 payout a la SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook. And while it doesn’t by any means sew up certainty to our first receiving yardage prop, it makes the likelihood that much more evident to the tandem risk wagered.
Looking at the receptions-per-game for Montgomery as a barometer for just how probable this feat is to occur, the uptick trending for the second-year back with Foles under center is looking like a convincing metric with recency in mind. While Montgomery does happen to average 3.3 reception per game average in 2020’s six weeks booked, since Foles has guided the Bears offense in mid-Week 3 going forward, Montgomery’s universal inclusion has increased week after week. As previously mentioned, Mongomery’s snap count has leaped a significant amount since Trubisky and Cohen were last present on the field, with a 30% hike in involvement from Week 4 to present.
More importantly with consideration of the specifics of this prop bet, not only has Montgomery’s snap share increased by significant volume, but his target and reception shares have also elevated through Foles’ progressions, with Montgomery’s 3.3 receptions per game for the season overshadowed by a 5.5-reception average in his past two outings (seven vs. Tampa Bay, four vs. Carolina). The sample size may be miniscule to some, but the trends of recency and increased involvement are promising under plus-money pretense for this wager.
Just as reasoned in part with our first prop declared, Foles should see increased pressure, as Aaron Donald and company ransack offensive lines with the sixth-most sacks in the NFL (20). The safety net looks to be cast early to Montgomery, and Foles leading the offense will also lend credence to that.
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