How the mighty have fallen. Less than two years removed from a Super Bowl championship victory, one year from being touted as the best defense in the NFL and (at the time) contender for best record in the 2019 season, the New England Patriots have footed a tumble down a steep hill to a 2-5 record. On Monday Night Football in Week 9, misery loves company as the New York Jets welcome the Pats to the Meadowlands to battle for inferiority rights of the AFC East as we make NFL betting picks on OddsShopper.
The Jets have sadly been used to this tier of futility for some time now, but Monday Night Football serves as an opportunity to slip one to their division arch-rivals when the Pats are at their weakest form in over two decades. Can the Jets pull off what would still be considered an upset against the double-digit favorites? Or will Cam Newton and the beleaguered Patriots notch their first victory since Week 3? While we’re hours away from finding out the answer, we’ll seek out some of the potential best NFL picks for tonight’s Monday Night Football installment of Week 9.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
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NFL Betting Picks + Odds Shopping: Monday Night Football | Patriots vs Jets
NFL Pick: WR Damiere Byrd, OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The options at wide receiver are few and far between for the Patriots, while the addition of Isaiah Ford is a welcome one in part for the sake of being a new pair of hands to throw to. With Ford assuming the slot role as Julian Edelman has been placed on injured reserve, the brunt of the outside route work is left to Jacobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd. While Meyers has become Newton’s new favorite target over the past two weeks, the other deep option in Byrd makes for an intriguing proposition to exceed 40 receiving yards with previous signs of promise sewn to his skill set.
The Arizona Cardinal castaway receiver has signaled glimpses of sustaining the deep route role for New England this season, registering his best game of 2020 in Week 4 at Kansas City as he managed 80 receiving yards on five receptions via a team-high 10 targets (with both N’Keal Harry and Edelman in action). Averaging 38.9 receiving yards per game for the season may invoke some hesitation on this receiving prop wager, but the chances for Byrd should be as plentiful as ever on Monday Night Football in Week 9. Not only will Byrd be the #2 receiving option by default, but he’s also been the Patriot with the most receptions in excess of 20-yards (5 REC of 20+ yards) coupled with a Jets secondary allowing 9.28 receiving yards-per-target to opposing wide receivers (seventh-worst in NFL).
When looking at Awesemo’s NFL DFS Projected Stats for cross-reference, we find Damiere Byrd projected for nearly seven targets, over 12-yards per reception, and surpassing the necessary yardage mark for our prop bet in question by 15 yards. It always helps to have supporting projections from the #1 DFS player on the planet boding in favor of your argument, especially when going hand-in-hand with the season’s trends earlier noted here.
Byrd should see coverage all evening from Blessuan Austin and Pierre Desir, who provide a height disadvantage for Byrd, yet he’s fast enough to create the separation necessary after the initial dig of his deeper routes run. The bigger question will be Newton’s progressions to establish Byrd, along with his accuracy in getting to him on the deep ball. If this weren’t the Jets on the other side of the ball, I would have a bit more reluctance on this wager, but that’s not the case. Given the wide open opportunity along with his proven skill set, melded nicely with the ineptitude of the opposition at hand, makes for an inviting receiving prop for Byrd to surpass 40-yards through the air at moderate -112 juice.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Pick: WR Jamison Crowder, OVER 4.5 Receptions (-124, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
Although it’s going to be the Joe Flacco show under center for the Jets this evening, the word on the street is that arguably the best player on New York’s roster in Jamison Crowder will be lacing up for the first time in three weeks also. This is not just noteworthy for the sake of making Flacco look good, considering Crowder’s essentially quarterback-proof, but especially a standout detail with star cornerback Stephon Gilmore out due to a knee injury. Not necessarily for the sake of when Crowder would ever draw his coverage, but no Gilmore on the field will open up the receiver routes for Flacco to distribute to. For the Jets slot talent, exceeding four receptions shouldn’t be much of a problem, especially given the Patriots secondary in the middle of a tailspin.
In the four games he’s managed to be healthy enough to play this season, Crowder has yet to comprise any less than 23% of the Jets receptions while racking in up to just shy of 40% of them in any one game. And speaking of Flacco, the ex-Raven of lore has a propensity of providing plenty of targets to his best receivers (not much of a sample size to work with from his Denver days), while also harvesting a solid rapport with his slot guys. This speaks massive volumes to the likelihood of this player prop striking pay-dirt, along with the depressed Patriots secondary allowing the most yards per-target in the league (9.78 YPT) as added incentive for Flacco to hit his lead guy in stride.
The juice could certainly be lower, but at -124 it’s not a back-breaker to retain value in this still-friendly receiving proposition for the top receiver not just on the Jets, but on the entire field in Monday Night Football for Week 9. I would jump on this line as soon as possible, as you’ll get refunded under no action if Crowder does in fact happen to sit (which I doubt he will by the news circulating). And as a side note: if you are able to catch favorable juice by comparison to the current line with increased receptions as the trade-off, I wouldn’t mind taking that either.
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