Odds boosts are exactly that: Promotions from sportsbooks where they move tin your favor on certain bets. Many of them are prop bets, hoping you’ll put a few dollars on someone to hit a home run or a certain team to score a certain number of goals and still win. Our job is to highlight some of those odds boosts and give you some NFL picks to bet on, assuming it’s smart to buy into what the sportsbooks are selling. We scour the internet trying to find the best odds boosts for you every day from every sport.
The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals tangle in a battle of Ohio on Thursday Night Football, so there are plenty of odds boosts to choose from for this game. We’ll of course look at the two quarterbacks — Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield — and what the sportsbooks are offering on the pair. We’ll also peek at the odds boosts on Odell Beckham and a wild card long shot odds boost on Nick Chubb. All of these odds boosts can be found on OddsShopper, so let’s dive into what we found on Awesemo’s odds comparison tool today.
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NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Pick: Joe Burrow & Baker Mayfield Over 3.5 Touchdown Passes (+175 DraftKings)
Most sportsbooks are offering a bunch of odds boosts around these two, but the combined passing touchdowns stands out to me for several reasons. The obvious one is that both of these teams need to inject their quarterbacks with some confidence after Week 1 losses, and that means throwing the ball and letting them find success. I don’t think there will be many rushing touchdowns in this game, but there will be plenty of points, which means more passing touchdowns.
If you want to split up the quarterbacks, two different sportsbooks are offering odds on one of the two to throw at least two touchdowns. PointsBets is offering +120 odds on Mayfield tossing for two or more scores, and I’m more confident in this than Burrow throwing for two. The Browns can avoid crisis mode with a win, but Mayfield needs to play well or the questions about the quarterback will consume this season. Cleveland knows it must get Mayfield to play up to the level they expect of a third-year quarterback, so that means more passes again as the game goes along.
BetMGM lists +180 boosted odds on Burrow to toss two touchdowns, and this one is a bit more of a gamble. Burrow completed a good percentage of his passes, but he averaged less than 5.4 yards per attempt and less than 10 yards per completion. The Bengals can remain conservative with Burrow early in the season, but that doesn’t lend itself to throwing for touchdowns often. He’ll face plenty of pressure from the Browns pass rush, so he’ll need to be decisive and quick when releasing the ball, which also means less of a chance for him to throw many touchdowns.
NFL Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. 75+ Receiving Yards (+125 PointsBet)
Part of getting Mayfield back on track is helping him get the ball to his play makers easier and letting them do the work. That includes finding ways to get Beckham after he caught just three passes in the opener despite being targeted 10 times. Cincinnati’s defense doesn’t possess the same tenacity as Baltimore’s, which should give the Browns more room to move the ball and more chances for Beckham to be involved in the offense.
Beckham had two very different games against the Bengals last year, but if he’s going to be one of the focal points in getting Mayfield back into a rhythm, he should be able to surpass 75 receiving yards. The issue is Beckham only reached 75 yards receiving five times last season, but if the Browns put an extra focus on him within the passing game, he should be fine.
Another interesting odds boost surrounding Beckham’s receiving yards comes from DraftKings, which is offering +115 odds on Beckham and A.J. Green surpassing 120.5 receiving yards combined in the game. Green had a productive day in Week 1 with five catches for 51 yards, but he will face a tougher match in Cleveland’s secondary. He still is an elite receiver who can be a security blanket for Burrow in this game if the Browns bring the pressure.
NFL Pick: Nick Chubb Scores First Touchdown Of Game (+680 FanDuel)
The Bengals are going to put so much attention on the Cleveland passing game that it should open up some plays for Chubb and the running game. The Browns fell behind so quickly in Week 1 that they didn’t have many plays that suited Chubb’s physical running style in the second half, but I suspect they will try to establish his presence early against the Bengals. In his career, Chubb has averaged 4.6 yards per rush against the Bengals with a pair of 100-yard performances.
He might only have one touchdown in those four games against Cincinnati, but the Browns understand how important his role will be for this offense to get back on track. If Cleveland can get around the goal line early in the game, it might use the steady Chubb as an option and help build up his confidence a bit after a rough first game.
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