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MIllion Dollar NFL Parlay Picks for Sunday Week 12 | Jonathan Taylor & Indianapolis Colts

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The NFL has 10 games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less. 

NFL Picks & Parlays Today: Best Betting Picks

The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build a 10-leg parlay for the slate!

Jonathan Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions 

It stands to reason that the Colts may have to pass more than they’d like against the Buccaneers, as Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point favorite on the road. The Bucs have the fourth-best DVOA against the run and are allowing the second-lowest yards per carry. However, they have given up over 70 receptions against running backs and Taylor is 12th among backs in routes (164) and 16th in target share (11.6%). Oddsshopper has him at a 68% expected win rate and 3.5 receptions this week. 

Tyrod Taylor Over 224.5 Passing Yards

The Jets have statistically one of the worst passing defenses in football as they rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and allow a 70.3% completion rate, 29th in the league. Taylor has been the starting quarterback for the Texans when he’s been healthy and has only completed three games. Last week saw the Texans play in a downpour for most of the game but in his previous two games, Taylor averaged 265.5 passing yards per game. When he got hurt in Cleveland in Week 2, he left with 125 passing yards under his belt and it wasn’t halftime yet. Oddsshopper loves the over, projecting 259.8 passing yards and a 74% expected win rate. 

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Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions 

It might be flying under the radar but Waddle leads the Dolphins in targets with 95 and he’s fifth in the NFL in receptions with 68. That’s an average of 6.2 per game and the line is too low, hence Oddsshopper projecting a 73% expected win rate and 6.1 receptions. Waddle is first in the NFL in routes run but almost 49% of his snaps come in the slot. That will lead him away from Carolina’s cornerback duo of Donte Jackson and Stephon Gilmore for the most part. Jackson is in the slot under 5% of the time and Gilmore is only at 21.3% of his snaps. A player inside the top five in receptions has a great chance to go over on this one, even if the ROI isn’t spectacular individually. 

Matt Ryan Over 21.5 Completions 

The Oddsshopper expected win rate of 84% is one of the largest on the slate and they project the Falcons quarterback to complete 26 passes this week. Since Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and their completion rate allowed of 71.8% is also 31st, it’s easy to see the path to success for Ryan. He is currently 11th in the league in attempts at 35 per game and his completion rate is 67.7%. The Jaguars have shown little resistance against passing games and this should be a strong wager to add to the NFL Parlay. 

Darius Slayton Over 35.5 Receiving Yards 

The Giants host the Eagles this week but their receiving corps is dealing with some very important injuries. Both Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are going to miss this game, leaving Kenny Golladay and Slayton to pick up the slack. Golladay is going to be tangling with Eagles cornerback Darius Slay on many of the snaps and that means Slayton has the easier matchup against Steven Nelson. Slayton leads the Giants as it is in air yards share at 28.1% and he’s averaging 32.4 receiving yards per game. Philadelphia is only 18th in DVOA against the pass and Nelson allows 12.9 yards per reception and a 125.9 passer rating so far. 

Mac Jones Over 225.5 Passing Yards 

The Patriots may not have to pass a lot against the Titans but they should find success when they do. Jones is above this mark at 230 yards per game and Tennessee is 13th in DVOA against the pass. They also lost linebacker Bud Dupree since he is on the injured reserve which is a major blow to their pass rush. Jones and the Patriots are seven-point favorites in this game and Jones is 12th in both attempts (31.7 per game) and passing yards across the league. New England can be tricky to bet prop with because they utilize all their options so Jones has a 60% expected win rate on Oddsshopper

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Joe Mixon Over 71.5 Rushing Yards 

There have been plenty of years where betting this high of an over for rushing yards against the Steelers was a terrible bet. This year has seen a shift and the Bengals have given Mixon 180 carries so far, fourth in the NFL. He’s also fourth in rushing yards and averages 75.9 per game while ranking fourth in evaded tackles at 61. The Steelers defense is just 16th in DVOA against the run and they are tied for 32nd in yards allowed per attempt. Oddsshopper is projecting Mixon for 81 rushing yards and a 65% expected win rate, which makes sense given how the Steelers are playing against the run. 

Mike Williams Over 50.5 Receiving Yards 

This appears to be a very low line according to Oddsshopper who projects Williams for 68 receiving yards and a 68% expected win rate. Los Angeles heads into Denver to face the Broncos, who do have a strong cornerback to match up with Williams in Patrick Surtain as he’s allowed just a 48.3% completion rate. However, he’s also allowed 11.8 yards per reception so he’s not been a total shutdown cornerback. Additionally, Williams has a 20.5% target share and is 20th in the league in yards per reception at 15.3. Williams has also been an elite receiver in yards after the catch with 271 yards, ranking 11th in the league. This prop is a very attainable addition to the NFL Parlay. 

Van Jefferson Under 4.5 Receptions 

This has a 73% expected win rate with Jefferson being projected for 3.5 receptions on Oddsshopper. He has only gone over once all season and with the Cooper Kupp leading the NFL in may receiving categories, this isn’t a big surprise. The Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr. and have had a bye week to integrate him into the offense. Jefferson has just a 14.6% target share and averages just 5.3 targets per game, so he would need to be efficient against the Packers. Jefferson has 35 receptions this season and Packers cornerback Eric Stokes matches his speed as they both have a sub 4.4-second 40-yard dash. Los Angeles should have other priorities than feeding Jefferson targets in this game. 


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Deebo Samuel Over 67.5 Receiving Yards 

Perhaps sportsbooks are overreacting to last week when Samuel only had 15 yards receiving. Oddsshopper has this wager at a 68% expected win rate and 90 receiving yards so there is a significant gap. Samuel is second in receiving yards on the year (994, 99.4 per game), first in yards run per route (3.60), first in yards after the catch (541), and sixth in yards per reception (18.1). His target share in the 49ers offense is 31.5% and that is fifth in the NFL. San Francisco does a great job of moving him around and finding creative ways to get him the ball so even though Minnesota is eighth in DVOA against the pass, Samuel can have a big individual game. While this NFL Parlay might not be a million dollars to hit, it would be well into five figures. 


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