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Million Dollar NFL Parlay Picks for Sunday Week 16 | Keenan Allen & Los Angeles Chargers

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The ultimate free guide to making your Week 4 Jock MKT NFL picks for Monday Night Football with expert IPO projections.

The NFL has 11 games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less. 

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The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build an eight-leg parlay for the slate!

Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions

The Los Angeles Chargers are traveling to Houston to face the Texans, but they will not have their whole offense at hand this week. Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams are out because of Covid protocols and that’s a large hit to the passing game for Los Angeles. Williams has a 20.4% target share and Ekeler is third in targets on the season and has a 14.9% target share and with that all missing, Allen is only going to be relied upon even more. He’s already sixth in targets (134) and fifth in receptions (7.1 per game) and OddsShopper has a 55% expected win rate. Full credit for Houston ranking 10th in DVOA against the pass, but Allen is a strong way to kick off the NFL parlay.

Miles Sanders Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

The yardage line varies depending on the sportsbook, but OddsShopper gives an expected win rate of 67% and projected Miles Sanders for 82 rushing yards. There is plenty of room between the projection and the line and sportsbooks don’t seem to be reacting quickly enough. The New York Giants are 28th in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards allowed per attempt at 4.4 yards. In the past three weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the league in rushing attempts per game at 38.3 and rushing yards per game at 210.3. Sanders has been a big part of that with a total of 315 rushing yards. These teams squared off in Week 12 and Sanders hurt his ankle, limiting him to just nine carries but even in those carries, he rushed for 64 yards.

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Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

It has been a tough season to trust a running back for the Buffalo Bills but last week showed what can happen when they play one a lot. Devin Singletary had 23 total touches and on the season, he does have 33 receptions for 2.4 per game. The matchup against the New England Patriots doesn’t come at a great time for Buffalo because they are missing Cole Beasley and Gabriel DavisMissing both receivers opens up a lot of receiving work and OddsShopper gives him an expected win rate of 67%.

Alexander Mattison Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

One of the highest expected win rates from OddsShopper is 75% for the over on Alexander Mattison rushing yards. He’ll be filling for Dalvin Cook in this game and even though the matchup may not be ideal, the projection is 93.7 rushing yards and that cannot be ignored. One aspect that seems practically guaranteed for Mattison is the volume. In three games that Cook has missed this season, Mattison has 26, 25, and 22 carries. The Rams only allow 3.9 yards per attempt defending the run and they are fourth in DVOA but the volume conquers all.

James Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards

Last weeks James Robinson carry the ball for 18 times and that’s the first time since Week 5 he’s hit that many carries. It was very encouraging and now he gets to face the worst run defense in football when the Jacksonville Jaguars face the Jets in New York. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the run, 23rd in yards allowed per attempt, and 31st in rushing yards allowed to running backs at 1,702. Robinson is 12th in evaded tackles per game at 4.6 and despite not receiving many carries for multiple games this season, he is still in the top 15 in rushing yards at 757 (58.2 yards per game). OddsShopper has Robinson projected for 86.2 rushing yards and gives him a 60% expected win rate.

Kyle Pitts Over 45.5 Receiving Yards

As far as fantasy football goes, Kyle Pitts has been a little disappointing because he hasn’t found the end zone more than once all year. However, the Atlanta Falcons have fed him the ball with 95 targets (fourth among tight ends) and he’s averaging 60.5 receiving yards per game. Facing the Detroit Lions pass defense that ranks 26th in defensive rating and 31st in yards allowed per attempt is a big bonus for Pitts. On top of his surface stats, Pitts is second in yards per reception (14.6), fifth in yards per target (8.9), and seventh in yards run per route (2.10). OddsShopper gives him an expected win rate of 63% and projects him for 56.3 receiving yards, over 10 yards above the line.

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Ja’Marr Chase Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

The Cincinnati Bengals are set to face the Baltimore Ravens and the latter team is dealing with so many injuries in the defensive secondary. They currently have seven defensive backs either listed out or on the injured reserve so Ja’Marr Chase has enormous upside in this game. Despite it being his rookie season, Chase is ninth in yards per target (10.2 yards), 12th in yards run per route (2.32), and sixth in yards per reception (17.0). Chase is also averaging 74.1 yards per game and some sportsbooks have this wager as an underdog, just adding to the appeal for the NFL parlay. OddsShopper has a 54% expected win rate and Chase is projected for 71.2 receiving yards.


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Josh Jacobs Over 3.5 Receptions

He may not be thought of as a pass-catching running back, but Josh Jacobs has shown he has that skill set this season. He’s eighth among all running backs in targets and sixth in receptions and while some of that has been by necessity, Jacobs has stepped up. The Las Vegas Raiders have had players missing from their offense for a lot of games this season and they face the Denver Broncos this week. Denver has a strong secondary and rank 11th in yards per attempt allowed and third in completion percentage allowed at 58.9%. That could lead to plenty of check downs for Derek Carr and Jacobs is going to be the main recipient of those pass attempts. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 59% on this wager. For this eight-leg NFL parlay, the Awesemo Parlay Calculator gives this a return of +14304. 


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