The NFL has 11 games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less.
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The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.
Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.
Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build an 11-leg parlay for the slate!
Alexander Mattison Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
Some sportsbooks have this line up to 81.5 but OddsShopper has Mattison projected for 105 rushing yards, which is more than comfortable and he’s at a 77% expected win rate. Dalvin Cook is out for the Vikings and they are taking on the Detroit Lions. Mattison is going to get all the work he can handle and when Cook has missed games earlier this year, Mattison has at least 25 carries in both games. Detroit is 21st in DVOA against the run and they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards against running backs (109.3 yards per game). This wager is a strong add to a parlay with one of the largest differences between projections and lines at the sportsbook.
Carson Wentz Over 238.5 Passing Yards
The Colts are double-digit favorites against the Texans this week so Wentz may not have to pass a lot. However, Houston has allowed the seventh-highest yards per passing attempt this year at 7.2 yards. Wentz is 12th this year in passing yards and averages right at 232.5 yards per game and the eighth-most attempts on the season. Houston is a bit of a mixed matchup since they are sixth in DVOA against the pass but OddsShopper has Wentz at a 65% expected win rate for this line.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Completions
OddsShopper gives Tagovailoa one of the highest expected win rates of the week at 74%, along with 24.4 projected completions. The Dolphins welcome in the New York Giants this week and New York has allowed a 66.1% completion rate, 16th in the league. Tagovailoa has a completion rate of 70.5% so far this year in his playing time and has put his finger injury behind him, completing 27 pass attempts in each of the past two games. His yards per attempt is 17th (7.3 yards) so it is a bit easier to complete passes and his true completion rate is second at 75.3%.
Miles Sanders Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
The Eagles made some questionable decisions last week in giving Sanders only nine carries as he was gaining over seven yards per attempt. This week sees Jordan Howard already ruled out and Boston Scott is questionable, which means Sanders should see double-digit carries. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 55% and the Jets are 30th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the third-most rushing yards against running backs this year. As long as Philadelphia gives him the carries, Sanders has a great matchup to exploit and would be a great add to the parlay.
David Montgomery Over 2.5 Receptions
The Chicago Bears find themselves 7.5 point underdogs in this game against the Arizona Cardinals and that should mean extra pass attempts for the Bears. Marquise Goodwin has been ruled out and Allen Robinson is doubtful and that means the Bears will be short on receivers. Since the projected game script points to them passing, Montgomery should be more involved and he already runs 17.1 routes per game. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most receptions against running backs this season and OddsShopper has Montgomery projected for a 63% expected win rate.
Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions
Ekeler and the Los Angeles Chargers travel East to face the Cincinnati Bengals and Ekeler has a 55% expected win rate from OddsShopper. However, most sportsbooks have over 4.5 as an underdog and this is a strong chance to add ROI to the parlay. Ekeler is third among running backs in receptions at 51 and his target share of 15.5% is fifth. He’s also second in routes run and the Bengals have allowed the second-most receptions to running backs on the season. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate so both offenses should have plenty of opportunities.
Tom Brady Over 26.5 Completions
OddsShopper has the over for Brady at an expected win rate of 69% and it’s easy to see why. The Buccaneers are facing the Falcons and their pass defense is one of the worst in the league. They are 29th in completion rate allowed (68.6%), 29th in DVOA against the pass, and Brady has a 67.6% completion rate on the season. He also has the most attempts of any quarterback in football and is eighth in true completion rate. Tampa is a large favorite at -10.5 points but they will pass plenty in this game, giving Brady a great chance to go over and be a relatively safe addition to the parlay.
Derek Carr Over 264.5 Passing Yards
It can still be a little surprising to look at the leaderboards for the NFL and see Carr first in passing yards. That’s part of the reason OddsShopper has this wager at a 62% exepected win rate. Washington is coming off Monday Night Football and traveling to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders and they have the 30th ranked DVOA against the pass this season. They have allowed the ninth-most passing yards on the season and rank 28th in completion rate allowed at 67.9%. Even though Carr will be missing tight end, Darren Waller, he is still fourth in attempts and fifth in yards per attempt. Waller only played about 25% of the snaps in the last game for Las Vegas and Carr still threw for 373 yards.
Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions
The expected win rate from OddsShopper for Kupp is at 68% and the Rams have a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense. They are dead last in DVOA against the pass and it’s difficult to see how they mount any resistance against Los Angeles. Kupp leads all receivers in receptions at 92 and targets at 126 while ranking second in target share. Even with the addition of Odell Beckham, Kupp was targeted 10 times last game. The Rams are heavy favorites but their offense has been shaky over the past few games and this is a great get-right spot for them and Kupp.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 21.5 Completions
The Steelers are at home to play the Baltimore Ravens and are 4.5-point underdogs so it stands to reason that Roethlisberger will have to attempt nearly 40 passes. This game is a bit tricky to find the best wager to add to the parlay. Baltimore’s offense can hurt Pittsburgh in a bunch of different ways. Roethlisberger’s completion rate is 64.6% on the season and despite Baltimore ranking third in completion rate allowed, the volume is going to be there. Roethlisberger is 11th in attempts but he’s only 29th in yards per attempt, which keeps his completion rate high. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 63% and the trailing game script should get this wager to the over.
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Jauan Jennings Over 1.5 Receptions
The ROI isn’t fantastic with this wager but it’s a strong cap to the parlay. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 82% for the San Francisco 49ers receiver which is the highest on the day. The Seahawks host the 49ers and they will be without star receiver Deebo Samuel in this game. Jennings has been working his way onto the field more lately with snap rates over 40% in the past three weeks. Samuel leaves behind a massive amount in the passing game, as he ranks 12th in targets, third in target share, and fourth in receiving yards. Jennings was targeted three times last week and should be in line for a handful more in this game.
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