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Million Dollar NFL Parlay Picks for Sunday Week 14 | Rob Gronkowski & Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The NFL has 11 games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less. 

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The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build an 11-leg parlay for the slate!

Rob Gronkowski Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

Since Rob Gronkowski returned to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lineup three games ago, he’s seen a 19.7% target share with an aDOT of 8.8 yards and he leads the Buccaneers in receiving yards at 252. Tampa is hosting the Buffalo Bills in a game that features the highest total on the slate and Gronkowski is 12th among tight ends in receiving yards despite playing just seven games so far. He’s averaging 62.3 yards per contest and Antonio Brown will still be suspended for this game, consolidating the target share for Tampa. OddsShopper gives him an expected win rate of 55%.

Amari Cooper Over 3.5 Receptions

The ROI isn’t special as this is a heavy favorite across all sportsbooks but a large NFL parlay can use a little bit of “safety” built in. The expected win rate from OddsShopper is 70% however. The Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Football Team and Amari Cooper is not expected to be limited in this game. Last week, he played under 35% of the snaps and only recorded two receptions on two targets. On the year, Cooper has a target share of 18.1% and sees 6.6 targets per game. Washington ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and Dallas is sending signals they will be without running back Tony Pollard. They elevated a practice squad running back to the active roster. That could mean a few extra attempts for quarterback Dak Prescott and allow Cooper to sail past the over.

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James Robinson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars is a little risky with all the rumors surrounding their tension, but the number for James Robinson is too low. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 76%, one of the highest in the NFL parlay. After being benched for dubious reasons last week, quarterback Trevor Lawrence went to bat for Robinson and he’s in line for the bulk of the work. The Tennessee Titans are just 20th in DVOA against the run and Robinson is still 11th in rush yards (678) and averages 61.6 yards per game. Even with the nonsense from the coaching staff, this number is just too low.

Russell Wilson Over 20.5 Completions

Not many wagers can rival the 85% expected win rate OddsShopper has for Russell Wilson and that’s a great addition to an NFL parlay. The Seattle Seahawks travel to Houston to face the Texans and Houston is 18th in completion rate allowed. It’s still sort of odd to see Wilson attempting under 29 passes per game this season but the Seahawks have had their issues. Still, Wilson is completing over 67% of his passes, and even as a favorite, this number feels very attainable.

Hunter Renfrow Over 6.5 Receptions

This is projected to be a thin margin as OddsShopper has Hunter Renfrow at 6.6 receptions and a 68% expected win rate. The Las Vegas Raiders face the Chiefs in Kansas City and tight end Darren Waller is still out for the Raiders. He’s missed the vast majority of the past two games and Renfrow has racked up 19 total targets for a 25.7% target share. Renfrow is ninth in receptions on the season with 73 and he’s averaging 6.1 across the year. He’ll also still play a lot of snaps in the slot and Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has spent the most time in the slot at 61.6%. He is questionable but he’s also allowed a 68.1% catch rate this year, leading Renfrow to have a strong chance to hit the over and add to the NFL parlay.

Tre’Quan Smith Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

The New Orleans Saints are facing the New York Jets and their receiving corps is very short handed outside of Tre’Quan Smith. Deonte Harris is out, Lil’Jordan Humphrey is questionable, and Ty Montgomery (he’s used as a running back and receiver) is in Covid protocols. The team had to re-sign Kenny Stills three days after releasing him so that says a lot about where they are at. Granted, running back Alvin Kamara is back but he’s missed more than a month. Smith saw seven targets last week but quarterback Taysom Hill played roundly terrible and injured a finger on his throwing hand. The Jets are dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the seventh-most passing yards. Smith averages 35.9 yards per game and with missing players, he could see close to eight targets or more. OddsShopper gives an expected win rate of 62% with this wager.

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D.J. Moore Over 56.5 Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore is one of a group of receivers that has suffered from shaky quarterback play this season as he is fourth in unrealized air yards (636 total), and he’s 84th in catchable pass percentage. The Carolina Panthers are facing the Atlanta Falcons, who rank 29th in DVOA against the pass. OddsShopper has him projected over 80 receiving yards and at an expected win rate of 70%. Moore has managed to average 71.2 yards per game and is 13th in yards among receivers (854). He’s also ninth in routes and seventh in targets to go along with fifth in target share. The metrics are among the best in the leagues so even with Cam Newton throwing him the ball, this is still a worthwhile addition to the parlay.

Jarvis Landry Over 4.5 Receptions

With Odell Beckham Jr. celebrating in Los Angeles, Jarvis Landry is now the number one receiver for the Cleveland Browns. They face the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch from just two weeks ago and Landry saw 10 targets in that game. Since Week 9, Landry leads the Browns with a 25% target share. He may come close to that again this week because the Browns are missing David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. While those two are tight ends, Cleveland plays so many two-tight end sets that it could push even more work towards Landry. The Ravens lost cornerback Marlon Humphrey last week to a shoulder injury so their secondary is getting very thin. Landry has an expected win rate of 64% and is projected for 5.6 receptions on OddsShopper.

Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions

The Los Angeles Chargers welcome the New York Giants this week and the Chargers will do it without receiver Keenan Allen, who is in Covid protocols. OddsShopper loves this wager for Austin Ekeler with an expected win rate of 73%, one of the higher rates in the parlay. It’s very easy to see why as well. Ekeler is third among running backs in receptions (56), he averages 4.7 per game, he’s second in routes (24 per game), and he’s fifth in target share. Ekeler has a strong chance to go over this mark with Allen active every week. With Allen and his 26.8% target share out of the lineup, the odds rise even higher. On top of everything else, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most receptions to running backs at 72.

Noah Fant Over 2.5 Receptions

This game between the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos is rough on the surface. There are not many plays in the game that features one of the lowest totals of this week (42). The Lions are down to their third-string running back and tight end so the best path looks to be the over for Noah Fant. He’s seventh among tight ends with 49 receptions (4.5 per game) and his target share of 18.5% is eighth. Detroit is 28th in DVOA against the pass and OddsShopper does have this wager at an expected win rate of 70%. They may not be a dynamic offense, but Denver should be able to handle their business at home and Fant should be part of that. 


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Kyle Juszczyk Under 14.5 Receiving Yards 

The wager to round out the NFL parlay is the under for Kyle Juszczyk, which OddsShopper has at an 81% expected win rate. Deebo Samuel is still questionable but JaMycal Hasty will be active for the San Francisco 49ers when they face the Cincinnati Bengals. Juszczyk does average right at 10 receiving yards per game but his target share is just 7.8%. Hasty is at 10.2% and he’s been the receiving back for the team when he’s been healthy. With Elijah Mitchell out for San Francisco, Hasty and Jeff Wilson will handle the bulk of the work out of the backfield. Juszczyk averaging 2.3 targets per game on the season and it won’t take much to hit the under. 


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