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Million Dollar NFL Parlay Picks for Sunday Week 17 | Kyler Murray & Arizona Cardinals




Kyler Murray NFL Player Props Tonight: Colts vs. Cardinals Saturday Night Football

The NFL has 14 games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less. 

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The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build a massive nine-leg parlay for the slate!

Kyler Murray Over 254.5 Passing Yards

The Dallas Cowboys defense stands in the way of Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals offense this week, and they have been playing well with the best DVOA against the pass. They’ve also only allowed 158 passing yards per game over the past three games but they have not played a strong quarterback. Murray averages 273.3 passing yards per game and is third in yards per attempt (8.1), 10th in air yards (2,003), and true completion rate (77.3%). This game has one of the highest totals of the day and Murray should have plenty of opportunities to exceed this line and OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 65%.

Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions

It was a bad day for Tyreek Hill last week as the Kansas City Chiefs beat up on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a very low number and OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 65%. The ROI isn’t spectacular but since it’s being used in a giant NFL parlay, it’s easier to build in. Hill is third in receptions at 104 and that’s an average of 6.9 per game. Cincinnati is 22nd in DVOA against the pass and this game has a total of over 50 points, which is one of the biggest of the weekend. The Chiefs offense is always one to bet on in a projected shootout.

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Quez Watkins Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

Just from the seasonal perspective, Quez Watkins averages over 36 yards receiving per game so the over looks reasonable. OddsShopper has a 66% expected win rate on this wager and Watkins has a 12.8-yard aDOT on the season for the Philadelphia Eagles offense. The matchup against the Washington Football team is very appealing as they are 27th in DVOA against the pass and 29th in yards allowed per attempt. He’s third for Philadelphia in target share at 12.6% and it won’t take many completions to hit the over against one of the worst passing defenses in football.

A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 57% with A.J. Brown and his receiving yards along with a projection of 80 receiving yards. It has been a tough season for Brown between injuries and the Tennessee Titans offense taking a big step backward. He did flash some of his talents last week when he went for 145 receiving yards and even throughout his issues, he’s averaging 69.1 receiving yards per game. Brown has a target share of 27.7% and his 2.78 yards run per route is seventh in the league.

David Montgomery Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

The matchup between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears is likely the least exciting on the weekend but that doesn’t mean there aren’t avenues to make wagers so the NFL parlay grows larger. David Montgomery has been a mainstay in the Bears lineup when he’s healthy. He’s only played 11 games this season but averages 16.6 carries per game and is 11th in carries across the league. The Giants are 27th in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards per attempt allowed at 4.4 yards. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 63%.

Cooper Kupp Over 105.5 Receiving Yards

Once again, Cooper Kupp has a massive number for his yardage and he still has an expected win rate of 55% from OddsShopper. The Los Angeles Rams are facing what is left of the Baltimore Ravens team, who have suffered an inordinate amount of injuries this season. Their defense is in especially bad shape with 11 players either listed on injured reserve or out for this game. Over the past three weeks, Baltimore has allowed over 312 passing yards per game and Kupp is averaging 115.6 receiving yards per game. He leads the league in receptions (132), yards (1,734), targets (177), and target share (33.3%). This is one of the best matchups Kupp could have on any given week.

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Justin Herbert Over 263.5 Passing Yards

This is a very low number for Justin Herbert as he’s at home when the Los Angeles Chargers play the Denver Broncos. He is averaging 292.9 pass yards per game and his 4,394 passing yards are second in the league. Denver is fourth in completion rate allowed at just 59.9% but they are also 16th in DVOA against the pass while ranking 13th in yards allowed per attempt. Herbert is eighth in yards per attempt this season, 12th in true completion rate, and fifth in deep-ball completion rate. The number is simply too low and OddsShopper has a 60% expected win rate and continues to add to the NFL parlay.

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D.J. Moore Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

There aren’t many receivers that have as bad of a quarterback situation as D.J. Moore does for the Carolina Panthers. Moore is third in unrealized air yards at 824 on the season and he ranks 88th in catchable targets. That’s a very poor mix but he’s also seventh in the NFL in air yards share (39.7%) and is 12th in receiving yards (1,041). Moore has averaged 69.4 receiving yards per game so far this year and he’s fifth in targets with 144. Moore is one of the only ways this offense moves the ball and OddsShopper gives him a projection of 79.5 yards and an expected win rate of 64%.

Michael Carter Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

The New York Jets are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are going to be short multiple skill players. Receivers Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder are out and doubtful while running back Tevin Coleman is out. That’s going to leave Michael Carter with almost every single running back touch it what is projected to be a negative game script. OddsShopper has this wager at a 71% expected win rate, one of the highest of the weekend. Carter is 14th in targets among running backs while playing a part-time role for New York and Tampa is in the bottom-five in receptions and yards allowed to the position. All told, the nine-leg parlay would give a +26621 return according to the Awesemo Parlay Calculator. 

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