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Optimal Same-Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football | New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons




Optimal Same-Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11 New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons | Free NFL Parlay Picks tonight

The New England Patriots are in Atlanta tonight to play the Falcons for Thursday Night Football, which is a perfect opportunity to use OddsShopper to build some NFL Parlay Picks. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less.

Patriots vs. Falcons Same-Game Parlay Picks

The first step is finding which sport you are going to wager on so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once you are on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize what you are looking for as far as teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this whole process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for Thursday Night Football and build some NFL Parlay Picks.

Matt Ryan Over 21.5 Completions

Ryan is projected for over 23 completions, which is a solid buffer for the over, and even though the best bet is at Caesars for -115, the expected win rate does not change at the other sportsbooks. Almost every sportsbook has Ryan at the 21.5 mark, and even at a slightly lower rate of return of -120 or -128, it is still a strong bet. Not all players have access to the same sportsbook. Ryan has a 67.7% completion rate on the season and has averaged 24.2 completions per game. New England has the fifth-best DVOA against the pass, but Atlanta is a 6.5-point underdog in this game. A pass-heavy game script is projected, and Ryan leads the league in completion rate under pressure at 59.7%.

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Damien Harris Over 51.5 Yards Rushing

This is the only other prop that has an expected win rate of 70% and an expected ROI over 25%. OddsShopper automatically points to the FanDuel prop because it is at 51.5 yards and -115. While that is a very strong bet, Harris is projected for 66.2 yards, which is a wide gap between the projection and the line. Risking an extra yard at the DraftKings sportsbook is worth it because their line is -110. The ROI goes slightly higher, which adds up over the course of time, and the risk compared to the projection is minimal.

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NFL Parlays Picks bets betting thursday night football patriots falcons odds lines predictions free expert advice tips strategy optimal over/under moneyline today tonight

As for why Harris has such a strong chance to break that threshold, he is not on the injury report this week after missing last week’s game. He is also 10th in yards rushing this season, averaging 60.8 per game, and he has the ninth-most carries. The volume is there for him, especially as nearly a touchdown favorite. The Falcons have the 22nd-ranked DVOA against the run and allow over 4 yards per carry.

Jakobi Meyers Over 55.5 Yards Receiving

Meyers is projected for over 60 yards receiving tonight. He is playing almost 52% of his snaps from the slot this year, and that would leave him not matching up with Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell, who has only allowed nine receptions across 25 targets this year. Meyers averages just 48.4 yards per game, but he also leads the Patriots in targets and receptions, and he is second in yards. Knowing Terrell only travels into the slot 5% of the time is a big boost for Meyers, and his projection illustrates that.

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