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NFL Odds Shopping + NFL Picks, Best Bets: Sunday Night Football, Ravens vs Patriots

Matt Gajewski



Week 11 NFL DFS Picks FanDuel Cheat Sheet Daily Fantasy Football Lineups Expert Projections Ownership Lamar Jackson

Capping off some Week 10 action, the NFL closes out Sunday Night Football with the Baltimore Ravens taking on the New England Patriots. Starting the year 3-5, the Patriots enter this contest as 6.5-point underdogs. On the other side, the 6-2 Ravens will look to take a commanding lead of the AFC North. Let’s get into some NFL odds shopping based off the OddShopper tool and some NFL picks and best bets for Sunday Night Football, Saints vs Buccaneers.

NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football | Ravens vs. Patriots

Ravens -6.5 (SugarHouse)

While both teams have struggled at times this season, the Patriots have fallen on particularly hard times. Without Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry, Cam Newton has relied on a slew of practice squad players to catch passes. Last week specifically, the Patriots needed a fourth quarter comeback in order to preserve a victory over a winless Jets team. Similar to last week, the Patriots enter this contest with an absurd 17 players listed as questionable.

While deciphering who will suit up is difficult, the Patriots will surely be without a few key contributors. Edelman remains the most important on offense. Without Edelman and Harry, the Patriots trotted out Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski as their top three receivers. The Patriots also suited up just one tight end last week, limiting what they could utilize on offense. With Newton eclipsing 300 yards passing just one time, the Patriots could struggle against a stout Raven’s defense.

As for Baltimore, Lamar Jackson has also struggled of late. Similar to Newton, Jackson has only eclipsed 200 yards passing on three occasions this season. However, he actually draws a solid matchup against a once formidable Patriots secondary. New England currently ties for the most yards allowed per pass attempt (8.4). With weapons like Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews capable of exploiting this weakness, the Ravens look like the sharp bet ahead of Sunday Night Football.

Lamar Jackson Over 196.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)

Mentioned above, Jackson hasn’t exactly taken the league by storm through the air. However, his passing yardage prop has reverted too far in the other direction according to the Awesemo projections. Right now Awesemo has Jackson projected for 209.1 passing yards, giving him nearly 13 yards of value on his player prop. With New England struggling to defend opposing passing attacks, going back to Jackson’s arm looks like a sharp bet.

Another reason for Jackson’s pass game numbers falling could be a run-first approach. Baltimore’s 47.1% pass rate currently ranks 32nd in the NFL. Part of the reason Baltimore continues to employ a run-first attack is that six of their eight games have finished with a margin of victory of 14 points or greater, and five of those six games were Ravens victories. In blowouts, it makes sense for the Ravens to ride the run. However, bookmakers project this game to finish within a touchdown, pointing to additional pass attempts for Jackson.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.