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NFL Odds Shopping + NFL Picks, Best Bets: Sunday Night Football, Chiefs vs Raiders

Matt Gajewski

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Matt Gajewski's NFL Odds + NFL Picks for Best Bets & Lines using the OddShopper tool. Sunday Night Football: Chiefs v Raiders Patrick Mahomes

Capping off some Week 11 action, the NFL closes out Sunday Night Football with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. Starting the year 8-1, the Chiefs enter this contest as 7-point favorites. On the other side, the 6-3 Raiders will look to take a commanding lead of the AFC West. Let’s get into some NFL odds shopping based on the OddShopper tool and some NFL picks and best bets for Sunday Night Football, Chiefs – Raiders.


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NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football | Chiefs vs Raiders

Chiefs -7 (BetMGM)

Coming out of their bye, the Chiefs enter Week 11 well rested against a Raiders team that continues to struggle with an internal COVID-19 outbreak. While most players have been re-activated, the lack of practice time could play a role in this contest. Still, it should be noted that the very same Raiders handed Kansas City their lone loss this season. Either way, Kansas City stands out as the superior value against the spread.

Digging into the matchups, the Chiefs hold a sizeable advantage on the offensive side of the ball. They rank second overall in points per game (31.8) on the back of Patrick Mahomes hyper-efficient season. Mahomes already has five 300-yard passing games this season while completing 66.9% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt. The Las Vegas secondary currently ranks below average, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt. They allowed Mahomes to throw for 340 yards in their initial game this season and could struggle against the former MVP as well.

As for the Raiders, Derek Carr has three straight games below 200 yards passing. While Carr racked up 347 passing yards in the first meeting this season, that was easily his top passing performance of the year. Las Vegas prefers to take a run-first approach, and they rank 28th in overall pass rate 51.3%. In theory, this matches up well against a Kansas City team allowing the sixth-most yards per attempt to opposing rushers. However, game flow could force Las Vegas into a more pass-heavy script.

Between Las Vegas’ struggles with COVID and the Chiefs’ clear advantage on the offensive side of the ball, Kansas City is the superior target in this Week 11 tilt on Sunday Night Football.

NFL Picks: Travis Kelce Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)

One of the most exploitable markets across sportsbooks, individual player props continue to explode in action. Comparing the Awesemo projected stats tool against the listed player props provides a massive edge in the betting markets. Tonight one of the largest discrepancies occurs between Kelce’s listed 74.5-yard receiving prop and his projected 86.6 receiving yards on Awesemo.

Looking at Kelce’s role in Kansas City’s offense, he averages an absurd 24.3% target share for an offense that averages the most passing yards per game (294.7). Kelce already has five games this season above his listed receiving prop and averages 85.4 receiving yards per game. In this matchup earlier this season, Kelce recorded eight catches on 12 targets for 108 receiving yards and a score.

With the Raiders already ranking in the bottom half of yards per attempt allowed to opposing passing attacks, Kelce’s player prop is too low ahead of Sunday Night Football.


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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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