The Miami Dolphins head into Mercedes-Benz Stadium seeking to remain in the playoff fray as they battle the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. The Awesemo team has launched OddsShopper, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 16 NFL player props available based on the tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for Week 16’s Dolphins vs. Saints Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 16 Monday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
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Jaylen Waddle Under 65.5 Yards Receiving (-115, SugarHouse)
Jaylen Waddle has had a solid rookie season, but this line may be slightly out of reach. Waddle has averaged 65.3 yards per game and projects for 41.2 yards on 3.72 catches against the Saints, translating to an OddsShopper 85% expected win rate and 59% return on investment for the under. The Saints rank sixth in pass DVOA, having surrendered 175 yards per game to opposing wide receiver corps. Much of Waddle’s season has been remarkable, particularly his past eight games where he has averaged 77.3 yards on a team-high 9.9 targets per game. However, the Saints could replicate the recipe for success they used against Tom Brady, pointing to the under for Waddle’s yards.
Marquez Calloway Over 30.5 Yards Receiving (-125, PointsBet)
Marquez Calloway has fared decently despite a carousel of Saints quarterbacks. Still, he is drawing a low-lying yardage prop against Miami. Calloway is averaging 39.6 yards per game and projects for 43 yards on 3.25 catches against the Dolphins, extending to a 66% expected win rate and 11% return on investment for the over. The Dolphins are allowing 172 yards per game to opposing wide receivers and rank 14th in pass DVOA per Football Outsiders. Calloway has managed the second-highest team target share at 17.4%, behind Alvin Kamara, and projections believe rookie quarterback Ian Book will lean on each heavily. At a quarter spend up on a fairly low prop line, grab the over on Calloway’s yards.
DeVante Parker Over 3.5 Receptions (-160, DraftKings)
DeVante Parker garners a low receptions prop well within his capabilities. Parker is averaging 4.9 catches on eight targets per game and projects for 4.68 catches on 7.76 targets against the Saints, extending to an OddsShopper 69% expected win rate and 12% return on investment for the over. New Orleans is allowing 13.42 catches per game and a 62.9% catch rate by opposing wide receivers, but they are still sixth in PFF coverage grade. In spite of the addition of Waddle this season, Parker is the second-most targeted member of the Dolphins, with a 23.2% target share to Waddle’s 23.6%. The spend up is a bit of an ask, but the over remains a worthy investment given Parker’s inclusion.
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