Monday Night Football delivers an interdivisional rivalry inclusive of AFC Conference supremacy on the line as the New England Patriots head to frigid Highmark Stadium to battle the Buffalo Bills. The Awesemo team has launched OddsShopper, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 13 NFL player props available based on the tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Patriots vs. Bills Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 13 Monday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
With the latest groundbreaking features in sports betting featured in OddsShopper, finding your best bets has never been as easy as it is now. With the ability to simply filter, sort and bet, you can now land the best bets and odds in 30 seconds or less. You can even create a Prop Party Parlay with a mix of your own favorite props of the day.
Cole Beasley Over 30.5 Yards Receiving (-113, FanDuel)
Cole Beasley remains a reliable safety net for Josh Allen and the OddsShopper tool suggests a receiving prop too low for the veteran receiver on Monday night. Beasley is averaging 48.2 receiving yards and 7.2 targets per game, lending to a 71% expected win rate for the over. Beasley is projected for 46.4 receiving yards by way of 4.16 catches against the Patriots while positioning the over with a 33% expected return on investment. The Patriots are allowing an NFL second best 131.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receiver corps while ranking second in defensive pass DVOA and second in defensive receiver coverage by Pro Football Focus. Beasley maintains an 18.3% stake in team target share as second most among Bills players, contributing 17.4% of Buffalo’s receiving yardage. At just above standard juice, snag the over on Beasley’s low receiving prop.
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Mac Jones Over 200.5 Yards Passing (-115, PointsBet)
The training wheels have come off for Mac Jones and the OddsShopper tool lends to believe the rookie’s passing development over the past several weeks holds firmly on Monday Night Football. Jones is averaging 237.5 passing yards per game as the over projects for a 61% expected win rate. Jones is projected for 218.7 passing yards on 19.67 completions against the Bills and further aligns the over with a 13% expected return on investment.
The Bills have amassed the league’s top ranked defensive pass DVOA per Football Outsiders and allowed an NFL best 189.09 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Jones has surpassed 200 passing yards in nine performances with a 70.3% completion rate ranked in the top three among quarterbacks this season. All compliments aside, game flow will surely dictate Jones’ passing allowances while it’s conceivable that the Patriots will need to find consistency in the passing game to counter the Bills’ top four rush defense. At a mild total and moderate juice, lock in the over on Jones’ passing yards.
Dawson Knox Under 3.5 Receptions (-140, PointsBet)
Dawson Knox has recently returned from injury looking like he hasn’t missed a game while OddsShopper projects that he may come up short of a receptions prop on Monday Night Football. Knox is averaging 3.4 catches on 4.55 targets per game, coinciding for a 71% expected win rate to the under. Knox is projected for 2.75 catches of 5.04 targets against the Patriots, setting up the under with a 22% expected return on investment.
The Patriots possess the top ranked defensive pass DVOA against the tight end position while having surrendered just three receptions per game to opposing tight end corps. Knox has averaged 13.3% of the Bills team target share with a 7.5% drop rate in nine games. With plenty of mouths to feed on the Buffalo offense against the top tight end defenders, book the under on Knox at heightened juice.
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