The undefeated Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold head into Thursday Night Football to square off with the Houston Texans. With the start of the NFL season, the Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Panthers vs. Texans Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 3 Thursday Night Football NFL Player Props
Christian McCaffrey Over 82.5 Yards Rushing (-115, BetMGM)
Christian McCaffrey is back to full throttle and projecting every bit as well on Thursday Night Football. Facing an NFL Player Prop of 82.5 rushing yards, the NFL Player Props Tool forecasts McCaffrey for 95.97 rushing yards against the Texans while the over dons a 66% expected win rate and 23.6% return on investment. McCaffrey has averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 85 rushing yards per game in two games this season. Of Carolina’s 136 offensive plays this year, McCaffrey has made 45 carries, with his attempts consuming 33% of the team’s offensive snaps. Before his injury last season, McCaffrey’s three games played saw the same 3.8 yard per carry average with 75 rushing yards per game. The matchup couldn’t be much better, with Houston ranking 28th against opposing running backs and allowing 5.38 yards per carry this season. Taking the over on McCaffrey’s rushing yards is highly recommended.
Davis Mills Under 19.5 Completions (-114, FanDuel)
Tyrod Taylor’s hamstring injury lands him on injured reserve, lending the start on Thursday Night Football to rookie Davis Mills. The NFL Player Props Tool sheds light on a 19.5 completions prop for Mills while the under carries a 69% expected win rate. With Mills projected for 17.84 completions by the tool, the under also dons a 29% return on investment at -114 odds. In two full seasons at Stanford, Mills tallied 287 completions on 436 passing attempts, a 65.8% completion rate, and 22.07 completions per game (omitting his only two pass attempts his sophomore year). Thrown to the wolves mid-game last Sunday in Cleveland, Mills tossed eight completions on 18 attempts for a 44.44% completion rate. Against a Carolina defense allowing the fewest completions in two games with 31 allowed this season, the under on Mills’ completions is a steady play.
Robby Anderson Over 42.5 Yards Receiving (-130, PointsBet)
Darnold and Robby Anderson have reunited in Carolina, and the NFL Player Props Tool anticipates a productive pairing on Thursday Night Football. Drawing a 42.5 yards receiving player prop, Anderson projects for a 72% expected win rate on the over. With Anderson projected for 59.1 receiving yards by the tool, the over at -130 odds align with a 26.7% return on investment. Into his sixth NFL season, Anderson has amassed a career of 4,250 receiving yards in 80 games played and 53.12 receiving yards per game (with a portion coming from Darnold). Averaging 47.5 receiving yards in two games this season, Anderson also draws Awesemo’s projected stats of 21% team target share and 64% catch rate against Houston. While the premium juice at -130 remains undesirable, the player prop line is a bit low here. With all things considered, the writing on the wall points to the over.
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