Awesemo Daily Fantasy Sports
Awesemo Fantasy Football
Odds Shopper by Awesemo
Connect with us

nfl betting

Best NFL Player Props and Betting Picks for AFC Wild Card Games | Saturday, 1/15/21

Henry John

Published

on

The NFL Playoffs begin on Saturday with a doubleheader. Two AFC Wild Card matchups are on tap with the 5-seed Las Vegas Raiders and 4-seed Cincinnati Bengals getting the party started in the afternoon. Then, the 6-seed New England Patriots will collide with the No. 3 seed and rival Buffalo Bills in primetime. For bettors, Saturday’s Wild Card doubleheader presents numerous opportunities to fire on NFL player props. Make sure to include the revamped OddsShopper Tool in your handicapping process. The tool will help point you in the direction of the best NFL props and betting picks as well as the most favorable odds available in the market.

Let’s put OddsShopper to the test and explore some of Awesemo’s favorite NFL player props for Saturday’s AFC Wild Card doubleheader.

Best NFL Bets & Props | Saturday Wild Card Games

With OddsShopper, finding the best NFL betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself with the featured NFL prop bets below. A pick for each of the four teams playing in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card doubleheader is included!

In New York? Do not forget to check out Alex Baker’s article on how to MAXIMIZE your sportsbook bonus.

Bryan Edwards Under 2.5 Receptions (-179, Caesars)

Bryan Edwards has failed to meet expectations that some analysts had for him. While Edwards did catch four passes for 63 yards in Week 18, his involvement in the Raiders’ offensive attack has been very sporadic. In the regular-season meeting against Cincinnati, Edwards was not involved at all. He did not draw a single target in the loss. Furthermore, Edwards has seen four targets or less in nine of the last 11 games. Neither the release of troubled wideout Henry Ruggs and a lengthy injury absence for tight end Darren Waller led to him becoming a focal point of the passing game.

Of course, Waller is back as the Raiders get set for Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game. Slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, running back Josh Jacobs and even Zay Jones all seem to have passed Edwards in the receiving pecking order. As such, Awesemo is inclined to play under the NFL player props line 2.5 receptions for Edwards on Saturday. OddsShopper shows heavy juice required on this prop across the NFL betting market. However, the optimal price of -179 is up to 15 cents better value than alternative listings. Despite the hefty juice, Awesemo still gives this under prediction an expected ROI of 18%.


The Latest Sports Betting Content from Awesemo Odds


Joe Mixon Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-114, FanDuel)

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon had three 100-yard games this season. One of those came in a 123-yard outburst against the same Raiders defense he will face on Saturday afternoon. Despite that performance, Mixon’s NFL player props yardage total sits at 74.5. This is largely due to a rough close to the regular season. In fact, the NFL betting line is higher than Mixon’s rushing numbers in each of his last five games played. That being said, the 25-year-old should be well-rested for this AFC Wild Card Game after being among the Bengals players who sat out a meaningless Week 18 finale. In addition, the season-ending injury suffered by Raiders defensive tackle Darius Philon last week figures to aid Mixon’s cause on the ground.

Get a $1,001 First Bet Match!

Awesemo’s projections for Mixon in Saturday’s NFL Playoffs game are nowhere close to the prop line. A projection of 99.34 yards rushing results in a 69% expected win probability for the over. In addition, OddsShopper shows that the betting market agrees. The majority of sportsbooks list Mixon’s rushing prop one full yard higher at 75.5. Some shops have the over/under line even higher than that. At -114 odds, Awesemo gives this prediction a 30% ROI.

Jakobi Meyers Over 45.5 Yards Receiving (-110, FanDuel)

Even going back to last season with Cam Newton under center, Jakobi Meyers has had a knack for being busy each time the New England Patriots play against Buffalo. While he was not targeted in the first regular-season matchup between the teams this year, keep in mind that quarterback Mac Jones only attempted four total passes in that game. For as sloppy as Jones and New England played in the second meeting, Meyers still managed to haul in six of eight targets for 59 yards. He saw no fewer than eight targets in each of the final four games to close the regular season. A similar target share on Saturday bodes well for his chances to clear the NFL player props total of 45.5 yards receiving.

It is worth noting that throwing the ball on the Buffalo defense is not easy. Jones certainly struggled to manage the variety of looks thrown at him in the second meeting between the teams three weeks ago. However, Meyers’ role in the passing game as a safe target on short and intermediate routes figures to ensure he is involved on Saturday night. OddsShopper actually shows the majority of NFL betting sportsbooks list his receiving prop one full yard higher at 46.5. Awesemo officially projects him for 51.64 yards and gives this over prediction a small expected ROI value at optimal -110 odds.


The Latest Sports Betting Content from Awesemo Odds


Dawson Knox Under 32.5 Yards Receiving (-118, BetMGM)

Dawson Knox had by far his best NFL season this year. However, he was held in check in both of the Buffalo Bills‘ previous games against New England. Knox may have caught a touchdown pass in the first encounter, but he had just 14 yards receiving in that game. Despite Allen and the offense being much more effective in the rematch, Knox was once again quiet with 11 yards on two receptions. In reality, pretty much every opposing tight end the Patriots faced this season struggled. New England allowed only 443 yards receiving to the position all season. Not only was that mark the best in the NFL, but it was 139 yards fewer than the next best team!

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Throw in potentially nasty weather conditions for Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game and Awesemo’s projections are certainly justified in preferring to bet under 32.5 yards receiving for Knox. While this line is the most popular across the NFL player props market, OddsShopper shows some books listing this prop total as low as 29.5. When it comes to those that list the line at 32.5, the preferred odds of -118 offer up to 17 cents better value than those at other shops. At the optimal price point, Awesemo gives this under prediction an expected ROI of 7%.


Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!


Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more picks and predictions.
React App

Sign up to Receive Expert DFS Advice & Exclusive Offers From Awesemo

Subscriber Counter

We respect your email privacy

More Betting