Wrapping up Thanksgiving night the Buffalo Bills will try to get back on track atop the AFC East against a hungry New Orleans Saints team trying to stay above .500. The Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 12 NFL player props available based on the tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Bills vs. Saints Thanksgiving Night Football matchup.
Week 12 Bills vs. Saints Thanksgiving Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
With the latest groundbreaking features in sports betting featured in the OddsShopper tool, finding your best bets has never been as easy as it is now. With the ability to simply filter, sort and bet, you can now land the best bets and odds in 30 seconds or less. You can even create a Prop Party Parlay with a mix of your own favorite props of the day.
Zack Moss Under 21.5 Yards Rushing (-113, FanDuel)
The Bills offense has dispersed mutual carries to three different backs and the NFL Player Props Tool suggests the workload could impede on Zack Moss. Moss has averaged 29.4 rushing yards per game through nine games and the props tool projects the under with a 77% expected win rate. Moss is projected for 16.96 rushing yards of 3.87 carries against the Saints and the props tool positions the under with a 45% expected return on investment. The Saints have allowed 65.6 rushing yards per game and 3.18 yards per carry to opposing backfields while ranking first overall in defensive rush DVOA by Football Outsiders. With Moss averaging 14.25 rushing yards over the past four games, the moderate juice on the under is looking tasty.
Trevor Siemian Over 203.5 Yards Passing (-115, DraftKings)
The Saints have been contending with their backup plan in Trevor Siemian and the Props Tool forecasts his potential to exceed a considerably low passing prop line. Siemien has averaged 230 passing yards per game through four games and the props tool projects a 58% expected win rate for the over. With Siemian projected for 220.3 passing yards of 19.94 completions on Thanksgiving night and the props tool aligns a 9% expected return on investment by the over.
The Bills have allowed a stifling 191.7 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks while ranking first overall in defensive pass DVOA. Yet Siemian has surpassed the necessary 204 passing yard mark in his past three games, and one would have to consider the Saints will be throwing the ball for a steady volume to attempt staying pace with Buffalo. While the line remains low grab the over on Siemian’s passing yards.
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Josh Allen Over 23.5 Completions (-125, FanDuel)
Josh Allen is looking to get his Bills offense flying high once again and the Props Tool insinuates he may succeed in doing so on the road Thanksgiving night. Allen is averaging 25.1 completions per game with a 65.7% completion rate through ten games and the props tool projects the over with a 66% expected win rate. As Allen is projected for 25.59 completions of 38.6 pass attempts against the Saints, the props tool positions the over with a 19% expected return on investment.
The Saints currently rank 14th in defensive pass DVOA while having surrendered 21.9 completions per game to opposing quarterbacks. Against a Saints defensive pass rush ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus, Allen will most likely need his aerial attack to be effective facing this top ranked Saints rush defense. In a rebound game on Thanksgiving night, look for Allen to throw the ball often and snag the over on his completion total.
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