Thursday Night Football features a 44-year-old quarterback in early MVP contention as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into Lincoln Financial Field to battle Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 6 NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Buccaneers vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 6 Thursday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
Zach Ertz Under 4.5 Receptions (+100, PointsBet)
The Eagles will be without Dallas Goedert due to COVID-19 protocol, and the NFL Player Props Tool suggests the defense on Zach Ertz may clamp down in spite of such. Ertz is averaging 2.8 receptions per game this season, and the props tool conveys a 77% expected win rate on the under. Ertz is projected for 3.36 receptions via 6.01 targets, and the under carries a suggested 55% return on investment.
The Bucs defense ranks 30th in receptions allowed to tight ends with an 80% catch rate and sitting 20th in pass DVOA against opposing tight ends. Ertz has exceeded tonight’s reception prop total once this season with six catches against a defensively inept team in Kansas City, while registering just one catch in two separate performances. There’s little doubt that Goedert’s absence should funnel increased target share to Ertz, yet, on a steep prop line at even-money odds I’ll side with the props tool.
Jalen Hurts Under 285.5 Yards Passing (-113, FanDuel)
The Bucs’ defense has been notorious for a suspect secondary but the props tool exudes some trust in their ability against Hurts’ passing yardage on Thursday Night Football. Hurts has managed 273 passing yards per game (1,365 passing yards through five games) and the NFL Player Props Tool gives a 64% expected win rate on the under. Facing Tampa Bay, Hurts is projected for 271.62 passing yards on 39.1 attempts and the under suggests a 20% return on investment.
Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered the most passing yards with 314.4 per game and 1,572 passing yards in five games, yet, over the past two weeks, the Bucs sit 18th with 550 passing yards allowed. Hurts has twice surpassed the yardage total featured on tonight’s prop line, coming in garbage time against both Dallas and Kansas City. With Goedert sidelined and the offensive line short Lane Johnson, grab the under on Hurts’ passing yardage at moderately low juice.
Leonard Fournette Under 62.5 Yards Rushing (-113, FanDuel)
Leonard Fournette has been clamping down on the role as Bucs’ lead rushing option while the NFL Player Props Tool suggests the momentum could slow down in Philadelphia. Fournette is averaging 50.2 rushing yards per game on 251 rushing yards this season as the props tool gives an 81% expected win rate to the under. Projected for 55.83 rushing yards on 12.1 carries, Fournette gives the under a whopping 53% return on investment. The Eagles’ rush defense has surrendered 50.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and 4.84 yards per carry this season while ranking 23rd in rush DVOA. While Fournette accounts for 19.4% of Tampa’s total yards on offense, Ronald Jones is vulturing 25% of the Bucs’ rushing workload, furthering the tool’s projections. With a yardage mark a bit too high on the prop line, lock in the under where it stands on palatable house juice.
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