Joe Burrow‘s Bengals welcome Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. With the start of the NFL season, the Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Jaguars vs. Bengals Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 4 Monday Night Football NFL Player Props
Joe Mixon Over 16.5 Yards Receiving (-113, FanDuel)
The Bengals will be absent Tee Higgins, and the NFL Player Props Tool anticipates they will compensate in other ways. With a player prop line of 16.5 yards receiving at -113 odds, Joe Mixon projects to be active in the receiving game, with a 67% expected win rate on the over. Awesemo has him for 23.36 receiving yards and a suggested 27% return on investment. Last week on the road against Pittsburgh Mixon recorded 5.6% of the team target share against a top-three ranked pass defense (by DVOA) against running backs. The Jaguars rank 17th against the position, so the over for Mixon makes sense, although his target share is a concern.
James Robinson Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115, PointsBet)
James Robinson had a great game last week, and the NFL Player Props Tool projects moderate success for him on Thursday Night Football. Robinson has an 85% success rate on the over, and he is projected for 65.78 yards rushing and a 58% return on investment. Robinson had 88 yards rushing and a touchdown last week. Though the Bengals rush defense has fared well, ranking second in DVOA, Robinson has accounted for 34.3% of the Jaguars’ yards over the past two weeks, and that volume makes the over a great play.
Joe Burrow Over 247.5 Yards Passing (-115, Caesars)
Joe Burrow is off to a strong start to the 2021 season, and the NFL Player Props Tool suggests he will have a productive evening once again. Drawing a player prop of 247.5 yards passing, Burrow has a 72% expected win rate on the over. Burrow is projected for 273.31 yards passing and a 35% return on investment. The Jaguars defense has allowed the third-worst completion rate (74.3%) and the fifth-most yards receiving per game and ranks 27th in pass DVOA. This is an excellent matchup for Burrow despite Higgins’ absence. Though he is averaging just 213.3 yards passing thus far, the matchup with Jacksonville makes the over more desirable.
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NFL Player Props Tool
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