Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts will try to bounce back from a divisional overtime loss as they host the New York Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday Night Football. The Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 9 NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Jets vs. Colts Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 9 Thursday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
Mike White Under 260.5 Yards Passing (-130, PointsBet)
Although Mike White gave a phenomenal performance in his starting debut against the Bengals, the NFL Player Props Tool projects some difficulty against the Colts. The props tool gives the under on 260.5 yards passing a 65% win rate and a 15% return on investment, as White is projected for 248.87 yards passing.
The Colts defense has surrendered 243.6 yards per game (15th in NFL), and their 70% completion rate allowed raises some concern. However, the Colts also have the 14th-ranked pass rush according to PFF, and they 17 sacks. With the Colts defense allowing 260 yards per game at home this season, the tipping point is White being on the road. The spend up is a bit of an ask, but take the under on White’s yards.
Carson Wentz Over 21.5 Completions (-105, BetMGM)
Wentz is averaging 21 completions per game and a 62.2% completion rate, and the props tool gives the over a 72% expected win rate. With Wentz projected for 23.16 completions on 33 attempts, the over has a 40% expected return on investment.
The Jets defense has allowed 68.2% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks this season (26th), going in stride with their 27th-ranked pass DVOA. While the past four weeks for Wentz have trended toward 20 completions per game, the Jets defense has averaged 27 completions allowed in the past three weeks and 25.14 per game this season. At minimal house juice, grab the over on Wentz’s completions.
Jamison Crowder Under 5.5 Receptions (-125, Caesars)
Jamison Crowder had a remarkable showing with White under center as starter, but the NFL Player Props Tool predicts he will come up shy of this prop. Crowder is averaging 5.75 catches per game, and the props tool gives the under a 70% expected win rate. While Crowder is projected for 4.88 receptions on 6.97 targets against the Colts, with the under drawing a 27% expected return on investment.
Indianapolis is surrendering a 67.8% catch rate and 12.62 catches per game to wide receivers. Crowder emerged as the second-most targeted member of the Jets offense in their win over Cincinnati, garnering 18.4% of the team target share and eight catches on nine targets. With Corey Davis doubtful, Crowder will remain the top wide receiver in the pecking order, yet he could draw additional safety help from the Colts depending on the situation. Wait to see which direction the line begins to move in, and lock in the under at first signs of movement in that direction. However, if initial action moves toward the over, wait for it to peak.
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