The second game of the NFL Postseason is a highly anticipated showdown between AFC East Division rivals. For the third time this season, the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will collide on the field. This time, the stakes are heightened as a spot in the Divisional Round of the playoffs is on the line. The two regular-season meetings between the teams were very different in nature. That being said, having seen the two sides match up twice already can be used to the benefit of bettors when making NFL player props and betting picks on the game. Make sure to also include the revamped OddsShopper in your handicapping process. The tool will help point you toward the best Patriots – Bills NFL prop bets as well as the most favorable odds available in the market.
Let’s put OddsShopper to use and explore three of Awesemo’s favorite NFL player props for Saturday night’s Patriots vs. Bills AFC Wild Card Game.
Best Patriots vs. Bills NFL Player Props & Betting Picks
With OddsShopper, finding the best NFL betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself with the three featured Patriots vs. Bills prop bets below!
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Rhamondre Stevenson Under 41.5 Yards Rushing (-114, FanDuel)
Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson gradually worked his way into a fairly even timeshare with established veteran Damien Harris as the season went on. However, bettors are wise to anticipate Harris leading the backfield in the postseason. Awesemo’s projections also seem to believe that the Bills’ run defense will perform much better than it did the first time the two teams played in Western New York. Of course, New England won that Monday night matchup despite Mac Jones only attempting three passes the entire game. While Stevenson had 78 yards in that game to go over the NFL player props total of 41.5, it took him 24 carries to get there as he only mustered 3.2 yards per.
With Stevenson expected to play second-fiddle to Harris in Saturday’s Wild Card matchup, Awesemo is very high on betting under his rushing total. A projection of 38.94 yards comes up over 2.5 yards shy of the NFL betting line. OddsShopper is also very helpful to this handicap as it shows numerous sportsbooks listing Stevenson’s rushing prop one or even two full yards lower. At the preferred line of 41.5, Awesemo has determined this under prediction to have a 38% expected ROI.
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Josh Allen Under 22.5 Completions (-114, FanDuel)
Bills quarterback Josh Allen split the difference on the NFL player props completion total of 22.5 in the two regular-season games against the Patriots. After being held to just 15 completed passes in the first game, Allen had 30 in the rematch. Of course, the second game in Foxborough featured substantially better weather conditions than the Monday night affair in Orchard Park. Well, both frigid temperatures and wind are once again in the forecast for Western New York ahead of Saturday’s Wild Card showdown. It could prove to be extremely difficult to pile up completions and passing stats in the winter conditions.
In addition to the weather forecast, the Patriots’ pass defense is not exactly easy to pick apart. New England ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency against the pass this season. Allen was wildly inaccurate and made several poor decisions down the stretch of the season. One has to believe that Bill Belichick and a healthy Pats secondary will have some exotic looks planned for the young quarterback in Saturday’s playoff game. Awesemo projects Allen for 21.47 completions in this Wild Card Game. OddsShopper shows that the NFL betting market agrees in principle with that prediction. Several shops actually list Allen’s completion total at 21.5. At the preferred line of 22.5 and price of -114, this under wager has a 16% ROI.
Dawson Knox Under 32.5 Yards Receiving (-118, BetMGM)
Dawson Knox had by far his best NFL season this year. However, he was held in check in both of the Bills’ previous games against New England. Knox may have caught a touchdown pass in the first encounter, but he had just 14 yards receiving in that game. Despite Allen and the offense being much more effective in the rematch, Knox was once again quiet with 11 yards on two receptions. In reality, pretty much every opposing tight end the Patriots faced this season struggled. New England allowed only 443 yards receiving to the position all season. Not only was that mark the best in the NFL, but it was 139 yards fewer than the next best team!
Throw in potentially nasty weather conditions for Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game and Awesemo’s projections are certainly justified in preferring to bet under 32.5 yards receiving for Knox. While this line is the most popular across the NFL player props market, OddsShopper shows some books listing this prop total as low as 29.5. When it comes to those that list the line at 32.5, the preferred odds of -118 offer up to 17 cents better value than those at other shops. At the optimal price point, Awesemo gives this under prediction an expected ROI of 7%.
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