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Free Week 17 NFL Player Props Today | Sam Darnold OVER 198.5 Yards

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NFL Player Props are an incredibly fun and profitable way to bet on the NFL. Sportsbooks have so much ground to cover given the massive number of options and player’s they post lines for. Last Week’s picks using OddsShopper went 3-0. Let’s take a look at some of the best Week 17 options.

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Best Week 17 NFL Player Props & Bets Today

Taylor Heinicke Touchdowns Passing: Over 1.5 (+160)

This prop is unique in the sense that OddsShopper only gives at a 49% chance of winning. However, due to the generous odds, it is still the best bet in expected return on investment. At +160, this bet only needs to hit 39% of the time to be a winner, making it a clear edge at 49%.

The news of Antonio Gibson being put on the COVID list is a big boost to this prop as well. Washington is without their starting running back but still implied for 20 points. Without Gibson, it is much more likely that those points come through the air. Washington’s opponent (the Eagles) also features a better run defense (by DVOA) than pass defense, furthering the case for Heinicke. Heinicke has thrown multiple touchdowns in five out of 13 games this season, which is right in line with the implied odds. However, given the Eagles defense and the lack of Gibson, it is a better bet this week than it usually would be.

Anthony Firkser Yards Receiving: Over 7.5 (-119)

Firkser has at least 8 yards receiving in nine of the Titans last 12, making it curious that this line is set so low. His usage is not great, with multiple games of only one or two targets. However, at 7.8 yards per reception on the season, he really only needs one catch to get it done on this prop. While the Dolphins (Firkser’s Week 17 opponent) have a top-10 pass defense by DVOA, they rank 26th against tight ends. They are also likely to sell out to try to contain A.J. Brown, who accounted for over 70% of the Titans’ yards receiving last week.

This prop has the highest expected win percentage of any prop in OddsShopper this week. At 70%, that is more than enough to overcome the -119.


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Sam Darnold Yards Passing: Over 198.5 (+100)

This bet has even money despite the relatively low number. Darnold is averaging 217 yards per game on the season, and that includes last week, in which he rotated out for 13 Cam Newton pass attempts. Tossing out Week 16, Darnold has gone over this prop in five of his nine starts, including the last time he played the Saints. He had a season-high 305 yards passing in that one, so do not be scared of the matchup.

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OddsShopper has Darnold projected for 226 yards, leading to an expected win rate of 62. That feels about right — the Panthers are underdogs and will likely be forced to throw the ball for the duration of this one. Their best weapons are also in the passing game, as Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore are both solid receivers.


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