There are 11 games across the NHL spanning all of the time zones across North America. Besides that slight oddity, there is one glaring similarity, with seven of the 11 home teams coming in as favorites. This should leave plenty of value in terms of NHL betting, as the general public will flock to these picks building steam as the day goes on. This column will use Awesemo’s industry-leading projections along with the newly updated NHL OddsShopper. With 418 players to sift through, let’s get into the picks.
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Best NHL Bets Today: Player Prop Picks & Predictions
Flames Moneyline vs. Senators (-240, DraftKings)
This is one of the spots on the night that many will go to, as the Senators have played just four games over the last month. With that in mind, using OddsShopper is critical to finding the highest return with the best/lowest hold percentage offered across all NHL betting markets. The Flames are not exactly playing a great brand of hockey (3-6-1 in last 10), but in the grand scheme of things the Senators have just nine wins on the year and allow the league’s fifth-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
Grabbing an easy bet with good return on a night with plenty of low expected wins is always good for the ROI. As this number grows throughout the day, pivoting to the Sharks at +1.5 (-220) also sounds reasonable.
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Matt Duchene Over 2.5 Shots on Goal vs. Sabres (-104, FanDuel)
This bet brings together all of the above for Duchene, with a projected shot total of 2.73 in Awesemo’s projections, a very positive matchup and value with the under at -120. On the year Duchene is averaging 2.76 shots on goal per game, including six in their last contest. This is more relevant than usual, as Filip Forsberg was forced to miss the game due to COVID protocols. Along with Buffalo allowing the third-most shot per 60, they are also missing their biggest driving force, top-line center Tage Thompson. When he last missed a game, it was obvious that his absence affected the Sabres, as the Lightning dominated possession and fired off 36 shots while tallying six goals.
If Forsberg is indeed out, the shot share for Duchene increases dramatically at five-on-five and on the power play. As soon as there is news regarding Forsberg’s availability today ,this number should shift one way or the other.
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