There are a handful of games on the NHL slate tonight, so we need to be checking out the odds and where we want to get our money down. Tonight’s Ottawa Senators – Toronto Maple Leafs game has some NHL betting picks worth looking at.
NHL Betting Picks: Senators vs. Leafs | Feb 17
The Senators and the Leafs will be playing again tonight after an 11-goal affair on Monday where the Leafs were leading 5-1 with 9 seconds to go in the second period and ended up losing 6-5. It was the worst Leafs loss of the season. At least 5 goals have been scored in three games against each other this season, with the only game under 6 goals coming at the beginning of the season.
The predetermined notions that the Senators are a bad team may be true, but they are a fun offensive team that can score goals in bunches. Even though they are last in the NHL in expected goal rate — which is mainly due to goaltending and defensive issues — they are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals scored this season. That is a recipe for high-scoring games. After Marcus Hogberg gave up 5 goals last game, the assumption is that Matt Murray will get the start in net tonight. However, his numbers this season are not much better, and he has not allowed fewer than 2 goals in a game all season.
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Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals -118, Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs (DraftKings)
It is no secret that the Leafs can score goals, led by Auston Matthews‘ 13 goals and 20 points in 15 games this season. He is arguably the league MVP at this stage, but he is not a defenseman nor a goalie. For as good as Frederik Andersen can be, he has been in net for two games against the Senators this season and has given up 11 goals on 55 shots. Obviously that is a small sample size, but Canadian Division games have been very high-paced and high-event. Even if there is positive regression tonight for Andersen, the Leafs can still put up 4 or 5 goals easily since the Senators’ goalie tandem is dead last in the league with an .886 save percentage.
Brady Tkachuk is the straw that stirs the drink on offense for the Senators, and if this game is going to get high scoring, he will have to be involved. He has 10 points in 17 games this season, but that does not tell the whole story, as he is an agitator and gets the opposition to commit dumb penalties to get his team on the power play. Another player to keep an eye on tonight for goal-scoring purposes is Evgenii Dadonov. He has 5 goals in his last five games and is on the top power-play unit. Now, we are expecting the Maple Leafs to carry the goal-scoring load, but getting a few goals from the Senators tonight will help the over cash. The over is the bet here, and it has value unless it gets wider than -125.
Bonus Bet: Patrick Kane Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -118 (DraftKings)
Kane has gone over 3.5 shots in eight of his 15 games this season, which is 53.3% of his games. If you want to properly line someone for the over at that percentage, you would be looking at a line of around -120. So while this line is probably correct, there is still value there because he will be facing a Red Wings team that is terrible at shot suppression. On top of that, the Hawks played the Red Wings on Monday and Kane had 5 shots on goal. There may be a few cents of value on this line for now, so the over is the bet unless the over 3.5 moves into the -130 range.
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