The swing season continues on the PGA Tour with the Sanderson Farms set to take place. This is another tournament that usually isn’t the main draw on a given week, but they get a chance to showcase themselves to the audience with a standalone week here. The Country Club of Jackson is where players will be battling it out, and this is another wide-open field for us to break down. For DFS that can make things tricky, but on the betting side this means open prices and the potential for a big score in the outright market. We have a number of spots to consider when looking for wagers this week and some interesting odds across the industry.
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PGA Betting: Futures/Outright Winners
Byeong Hun An 35-1
Like many in the industry, I have bet An to win several times over the years and have never cashed that ticket, as he is yet to break through on tour. It can be frustrating and expensive to back guys who look like they are on the verge of getting that first career win that sometimes never comes, and you can chase for awhile trying to get that elusive payoff. I strongly believe that fields like this are perfect for first-time winners, and An has to be considered despite never finding the winner’s circle before.
Last year at this event, An looked poised to win but came up short and ultimately finished third. He has the tee-to-green game to compete in most fields, but in this one he is towards the very top of best ball strikers available. The putter is always the wild card, and he actually got hot on the greens last year here, which explains why he almost won. There is no question An has the talent to win on tour, it is just a matter of lining up a putting week with the top-end ball striking that he normally has. More importantly than that is the price, which I immediately was drawn to at 35-1 across the industry. In a field lacking major talent, I thought he would actually be shorter, and that was the final check mark for me to take a position.
Luke List 55-1
Another guy who fits most of the comments I made about An, List is looking for that first win on tour. He has come close several times, including a runner-up finish at Sanderson Farms back in 2016. He has the game to compete, but like many golfers, he is let down by the lack of putting. Before finishing eighth at Corales last week, there was a stretch of four straight tournaments where List lost an average of five strokes putting. That is going to take a golfer out of contention immediately and can make it tough to even find the weekend. We know that putting can change on the fly, and although we don’t have strokes gained data, it seems like List made strides last week at Corales.
This is also a great price at DraftKings, with List at 55-1 in the outright market. This to me is too long of a price when you look at the field, which is devoid of significant winners and guys with win equity. List is in the bucket of players looking for that first win, but at 55-1 I don’t mind continuing to buy and hope that we will finally see him holding a trophy come Sunday.
Top Five
Charley Hoffman 12-1
I backed Hoffman last week in the top five market at 17-2, and he was unable to cash that ticket, ultimately finishing 14th. That is a quality showing, but for bets like this we need pure upside, and a top 20 isn’t going to get it done. Still, Hoffman’s game is in good shape, and I never worry about his upside.
His stats are all over the place with no consistency in any single aspect of his game. That’s not to say he isn’t showing form, with almost seven strokes gained on the approach a few weeks ago at the Northern Trust. Hoffman’s putter is inconsistent, but even that is boom or bust lately, with an explosion of 6.1 shots gained putting at Workday and some other ice-cold showings with the flat stick. In addition, we now are getting 12-1 on a guy who played well last week, and I don’t believe this field is that much stronger to warrant that type of correction. I will continue to take shots on Hoffman at these type of prices in fields where he can easily compete if the stats line up.
Matchup
There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player, and you can take several head-to-heads with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
Dylan Frittelli (-134) vs. Carlos Ortiz
The matchup I’m going to here has Frittelli hoping to continue his good play against Carlos Ortiz, who is looking to regain some form during the swing season. Frittelli is the favorite at -134, but that is still a price I am interested in backing when we break down this matchup.
Frittelli hasn’t played since the BMW Championship, but that doesn’t mean his game isn’t in good shape. He finished the season with five of six made cuts and gained tee to green in all but one of those tournaments. He leans on the driver, but this is a player who right now is excelling tee to green, and that is leading to the consistent results. The putter heating up could see him getting in the mix, and Frittelli showed that when he grabbed a win last year at the John Deere Classic.
On the other side, Ortiz is trying to find some momentum as we head into 2021. It has been a rough year for Ortiz, who comes into this event having missed three of his last five cuts. More concerning than the missed cuts is the lack of top-end finishes as he hasn’t had a top-20 finish since February. If we want to find his last top-10 finish, we need to go back to 2019. That isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence heading into this week.
His game isn’t trending anywhere, as Ortiz has lost tee to green in three straight events. That will need to change if he hopes to find the weekend and start stringing together results that will have him in contention. For a head-to-head bet, we are more concerned with consistency than upside, but Ortiz really has neither going for him right now.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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