The PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club (par 70, 7,209 yards) for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge. Daniel Berger (-15) took down this event a year ago, edging out Collin Morikawa in a playoff. Each week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Rankings to help identify mispriced options in both the DFS and betting market, and below are three of the best Charles Schwab Challenge PGA betting picks.
Ranking players in golf is tricky because the fields change in difficulty every week, as do the courses. The biggest part of figuring out the best players is figuring out how to sift through all this noise and come up with a metric to best capture how good a golfer has performed over the past year. Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has come up with the Unofficial World Golf Rankings, so we can use them in PGA DFSÂ lineups or to find an edge on a betting line.
At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. Next, how to weight these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played. Players are not rewarded by more or fewer rounds in the time period.
PGA Betting Picks for The Charles Schwab Challenge
Abraham Ancer (+2000 PointsBet)
Very quietly, Ancer is playing some of the best golf in the world right now. He ranks 11th in the world according to Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, and Ancer’s eighth last week at the Ocean Course was his fourth consecutive top-10. Plus, over his last 12 rounds, Ancer ranks first in all of these stats: Strokes gained total, strokes gained on par 4’s, bogeys avoided and fairways gained. Being accurate off the tee and avoiding the rough is key at Colonial, and Ancer posted a career-best 14th at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
His first victory at the PGA level is coming very soon, and Ancer is perfect at these odds on a second-shot course that is ideal for his skill set.
Tony Finau (+2200 BetMGM)
Finau added to his impressive major resume last weekend, finishing eighth at the PGA Championship. He has now appeared at 20 majors for his career, finishing in the top 10 in half of those starts. Additionally, Finau ranks fourth on tour with seven top-10s this season, and he ranks ninth in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Rankings following his strong effort at the Ocean Course.
Finau has never missed a weekend in five appearances at Colonial. He was the lone runner-up to Kevin Na two years ago, and Finau ranks fifth career strokes gained at this par 70 when comparing all of these golfer’s course histories in Fort Worth. These results shouldn’t come as a surprise, with this track sporting bentgrass greens. Finau is at his best on this cut of grass, and in his last 10 starts at venues that are home to this type of putting surface, he has an incredible seven top-10s to his name. The second PGA win of Finau’s career is long overdue, and this is a perfect spot for him to rejoin the winner’s circle. Some sportsbooks have him priced up, but he is an outstanding value at only +2200 on BetMGM.
Will Zalatoris (+250 for a top-10 BetRivers)
Zalatoris has never professionally teed it up at Colonial before, but these odds are just outrageous. Awesemo’s Unofficial World Rankings have Zalatoris as the 15th-best golfer on the planet right now, and he has finished inside the top 10 seven times in his last 18 starts, including eighth last weekend at the PGA Championship. Zalatoris ended the week ranking second in strokes gained on approach, and no golfer in this week’s field has gained more strokes with their irons than he has over his last eight rounds.
At a course like Colonial that was designed for elite ball strikers, it’s hard to imagine Zalatoris not finding success at this venue, and this week’s field is a large downgrade from what he just conquered at Kiawah Island. To put the icing on the cake, Zalatoris is a Texas native who grew up in Dallas, about a half hour away from Colonial.
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