Using Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings last week, I found a winner in Patrick Cantlay and cashed his +2200 ticket with his victory at the Memorial Tournament. The PGA Tour now moves to Congaree Golf Club (par 71, 7,655 yards) in Ridgeland, S.C., for the first-ever Palmetto Championship. This will be a one-time event on the PGA schedule, replacing the cancelled Canadian Open. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to help identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market, and below are three of the best PGA betting picks for the Palmetto Championship.
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Ranking players in golf is tricky because the fields change in difficulty every week, as do the courses. The biggest part of figuring out the best players is figuring out how to sift through all this noise and come up with a metric to best capture how good a golfer has performed over the past year. Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has come up with the Unofficial World Golf Rankings, so we can use them in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on your PGA betting picks.
At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weight these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played. Players are not rewarded by more or fewer rounds in the time period.
Alexander Noren (+4000, William Hill)
Noren’s game has been trending in the right direction for months, and last weekend he carded a 13th-place finish at the Memorial. This was his 10th made cut in 12 starts this year and his fifth top-25 during this run. Additionally, this was the fourth time in Noren’s past five starts that he has gained strokes tee to green, and he finished 13th in strokes gained putting. This wasn’t shocking to see considering Noren’s track record on Bermudagrass. Over his last 50 rounds on courses with Bermuda greens, Noren ranks fourth in total strokes gained.
Noren gets another date with Bermuda greens this week at Congaree, and if he can continue to strike the ball at a high level, this par 71 may be where he finally captures that long-awaited first PGA title. Compared to most sportsbooks, Noren’s odds are very long; there is no better price than the +4000 on William Hill.
Patton Kizzire (+4500, BetRivers)
Kizzire is one of the biggest standouts in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, ranking a whopping 109 spots higher than his standard world ranking. He missed the cut at the Memorial, but this should be taken with a grain of salt. For his career, Kizzire is only 2-for-5 in made cuts at Muirfield Village, and prior to this he had posted back-to-back third-place finishes.
Kizzire has five top-fives this year, and over his last 24 rounds he ranks fourth in strokes gained on approach, first in birdie-or-better percentage and fifth in total strokes gained. This is some of the best form coming into this week, and it also helps that Kizzire’s best putting splits come on Bermuda. One of his two PGA wins came on this surface at the 2018 Sony Open, and Kizzire has the potential to dominate the weak field in South Carolina this week.
Hank Lebioda (+15000, PointsBet)
An unfamiliar name winning this brand-new event wouldn’t be shocking, and Lebioda is the best dart throw of the week at these extremely long odds. His ball striking has come alive as of late, with him ranking third in strokes gained approach, fifth in strokes gained tee to green and second in greens in regulation across his last 12 rounds. The elite form has translated to three straight made weekends, including a 13th-place finish at the Valspar and 17th at the Byron Nelson.
He is also a great putter on Bermuda and has three top-20s in seven starts on par-71 tracks with Bermuda greens, including a third-place finish at the Bermuda Championship in 2019. Not only would a win this week be Lebioda’s first at the PGA level, but it would also secure him a ticket to next week’s U.S. Open.
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