PGA The Northern Trust – Weekend Live Betting

Two rounds in the books at the Northern Trust and we have already seen some absolutely monster scores. Scottie Scheffler shot 59 on Friday and Dustin Johnson nearly matched it with a 60 that felt like a poor effort considering how he started. Like most people your DFS lineups may be drawing dead, but that doesn’t mean the tournament is over. With the emergence of live betting you still are able to take positions within the tournament and create value if we see some guys primed to move up the leaderboard. In a way live betting is the equivalent of the DFS Showdown that has become so popular as you can use the in tournament stats to help lead you to some potential plays.

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Before we dive in to a few plays here is a quick snapshot of the strokes gained data thru 36 holes. Its important not to overreact to what we have here, but its also important to take a look at who is striking it well or on fire putting.


Best Tee to Green thru 2 rounds

1st – Dustin Johnson: +4.51 strokes per round

2nd – Scottie Scheffler: +3.81 strokes per round

3rd – Matthew Wolff: +3.41 strokes per round


Best Strokes gained Putting thru 2 rounds

1st – Viktor Hovland: +3.05 strokes per round

2nd – Tommy Fleetwood: +2.90 strokes per round

3rd – Danny Lee: +2.74 strokes per round


Its no surprise we see some of the leaders here with Dustin Johnson & Scottie Scheffler killing it tee to green, while Tommy Fleetwood has leaned once again on a hot putter. Lots of other players are within striking distance and this leaderboard is sure to change after moving day on Saturday with the course being so gettable.

Leaders

Dustin Johnson +175 (DraftKings), Currently 1st -15

I wanted to put DJ in the article because its important to at least talk about him even if we don’t decide to bet him in this spot. I actually wouldn’t recommend betting him at this price unless you think he’s going to never relinquish the lead and this is as good of spot that you are going to get at +175. He was a mind boggling -11 thru 11 holes on Friday and clearly he is the favorite. However at this course with all the birdies out there we are going to see a lot of opportunities for other players to attempt and hunt him down.

Just for reference the two players sitting in 2nd are Scottie Scheffler who is 8-1 and Cameron Davis who is 20-1 so clearly these lines show that the books view Dustin as a strong favorite to finish this off. If you don’t think he does basically anyone else is going to be a reasonable price and some big time odds if you reach down the leaderboard.

Lurkers

Matthew Wolff +2200 (DraftKings) , Currently T9 -10

Its been an impressive stretch of golf for Wolff who has shown the upside and firepower seemingly every week. The biggest improvement has been his ability to hang in tougher fields and courses which was something that I was unsure he could do right out of the gate. He sits in 9th after two rounds and has plenty of time to try and get into position to challenge the lead. Tee to green he is on fire which is much better than seeing just a hot putter, so he easily can keep this going. Per OddsShopper we have Wolff sitting at 22-1 at DraftKings which is the best value on the board. This is why price is so important as I wouldn’t have much interest in Wolff if he were sitting in the mid-teens, but at this price he is a great target if you are looking to take a position against DJ.

Long Shots

When looking for a long shot on the weekend the first priority has to be that the guy can go low. Clearly if you are finding a price around the triple digits it’s for the simple reason that the player is a ton of shots behind and sitting towards the bottom of the pack. In order for them to get in the mix they are going to need to take advantage of Saturday and start moving up the leaderboard so we are purely going for upside in this spot.

Bubba Watson 80-1 (DraftKings) , T12 -9

I know that tracking down a world class player like Dustin Johnson is going to be difficult, but I was surprised at some of the generous outright odds on guys in the hunt. Bubba Watson sits at nine under and 12th place after a great start in this tourney. He has gained off the tee, with the irons and around the green so the tee to green game is locked in. The one missing link is the putter which so far has given Bubba -.35 strokes per round. That isn’t a terrible number, but in order to go super low he has to find a few more birdies out there.

The biggest reason to buy here is the price as Watson is 80-1 on several sites including DraftKings. This is a proven winner on tour who has the ability to go low anytime he tees it up. Its true that if DJ keeps his foot on the gas he is just going to be tough to beat, but we are willing to roll the dice when seeing 80-1 live. Although this is much less likely to win then say backing a guy closer to the lead (or Dustin himself) I believe this is the most value on the board because of the odds we are getting.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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