We are just one week away from The Masters, which is going to have a ton of talk around this insanely rare November start date. Who knows how that course will play, but before we move to Augusta, we have one more PGA tour event on the schedule to break down for our PGA picks and golf betting cards. It is the final tune-up before the big show, and players will be battling it out at the Vivant Houston Open. Make sure to check out the PGA Above the Cut Article for a full course breakdown. This Par 70 features 3 par 3’s and 3 par 5’s, so it’s a little different than the normal layouts we see on tour. It’s just south of 7,500 yards, so having some length may come in handy this week.
Many of the big names have decided to skip this event for a variety of reasons and have set their sights on the major. However, after last week’s field in Bermuda, this is clearly a step up in strength with some key players returning to the course. In the betting market, this provides us with a lot of different options in terms of outrights, and it makes for an interesting card of guys who we can consider. Lets dive into what we have on tap for this week’s PGA betting breakdown.
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PGA Picks: Golf Betting Futures/Outright Winners
PGA Pick: Tony Finau 18-1 (DraftKings)
Yes, I know backing Tony Finau in the outright market is a frustrating money pit, as he never seems to find the winners circle despite always being in contention. However, I believe some of that is overblown and we are going to see a guy like this win his fair share; he is just too talented to not start taking tournaments down.
Finau’s 2020 had a gigantic disruption when he was forced to withdraw a few weeks ago with COVID. Since then he has returned and hasn’t showed any issues yet, with an 11th at the Zozo Championship. He gets the extra par 5, and he should be able to attack them with his tee-to-green game. His stats show everything we want in a potential outright besides putting splits on Bermuda, which are an issue, but that is a high-variance part of the game that I am willing to roll the dice on.
My first thought was that 18-1 is too short of a number for Finau, but digging into the stats and the field, it quickly became apparent this was a spot worth considering. The lack of wins certainly is concerning, but Finau has too many top 10s and fives on the resume to not start adding more wins, and a weak field event like this is a perfect place to start.
PGA Pick: Corey Conners 60-1 (DraftKings)
This is certainly a longshot, as Corey Conners sits upwards of 60-1 on the outright market. He is starting to show some form once again, and this price is interesting if we can survive the handful of players up at the top. Conners’ lone win on tour came in Texas, and I think this type of layout could suit his skillset and mitigate some of the problems he has with the short game.
The last time we saw Conners was at the Zozo, which had a five-par-5 layout that obviously allowed players to rack up the birdies. He gained across the board in every category and was able to crack the top 10 with an eighth-place finish. Anytime Conners putts well it’s a big win because that isn’t his strength, but giving him a bunch of par 5’s to attack is a big boost for his game. He consistently gains both off the tee and with the irons. If he can just hold his own on these Bermuda greens, there is no reason he can’t get in the mix.
PGA Betting Top 10
PGA Pick: Scott Stallings +1100 (DraftKings)
Even though there are some big names in this field, I still imagine lesser-known players will get into the mix. It may be a stretch to see them take down the tournament, but we have some juicy odds in the top five and 10 markets with mid-range plays. One guy that I have my eye on is Scott Stallings, who comes off a quality showing last week in Bermuda.
We can’t see the strokes gained data from Bermuda, but the 26th-place finish looks to show that Stallings has continued his recent form and remained hot tee to green. He was positive ball striking in two tournaments, and despite a missed cut at Shriners, he seems to be rounding the corner. At Sanderson Farms in early October, Stallings gained 9.4 strokes tee to green and was on the first page of the board, finishing sixth. In a field like this there is no reason he cannot contend once again if he continues to strike the ball this well. I am interested in a top 10 finish here at 11-1, as we get some margin for error while still maintaining some upside.
PGA Betting Matchup
There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player, and you can take several head-to-heads with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
PGA Pick: Harold Varner (-118) vs. Jordan Spieth
Once again, I am sticking to a strategy in matchups with Harold Varner a slight favorite over Jordan Spieth. I have been looking to short Spieth basically in every matchup I can find, as he just still is searching for anything with the ball striking and has yet to really find anything. At a Par 70 track with an extra Par 5 that also has some length, it could expose his problems even more.
Last week in Bermuda was a mess for Varner, but to me that’s a throwaway since these courses aren’t similar in many ways. Before that event he had made four of five cuts, including a top 10 at the Wyndham back in August. Varner will benefit from the additional birdie chances, and if he can get it rolling on the greens, then we should see him easily make this cut and find the weekend.
Spieth will be searching for answers after a Zozo Championship, where he lost 6.2 strokes with his ball striking. His -2.7 strokes off the tee made it nine straight tournaments where Spieth has lost off the tee, and that is a problem that isn’t going away. We know that he is a wizard putter at times, but he prefers bentgrass, and even that skill cannot mask his issues tee to green. He may turn it around at some point, but there is no indication it will be this week, and I feel confident he once again struggles with the ball striking. The price is a pseudo toss-up, so I will lean to the player who at least has the ability to gain off the tee and possibly take advantage of these scoring holes.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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