The swing season continues on the PGA Tour with another non-cut event being played at a new venue. The Zozo Championship is set to begin, and instead of Japan (where this event was held previously), we head to California. The COVID situation has forced the tour to take on some new venues, and that’s what we have here in Sherwood Country Club. The par 72 features five par 5’s and was used as the venue for the Hero World Challenge from 2000 to 2013. This has never been an official PGA Tour event, so we are all flying somewhat blind when breaking down this field. Make sure to check out the Above the Cut DFS breakdown, which will go into how this course might play and what we could expect for our PGA picks at this new venue.
This is another 78-man non-cut, and that means shorter prices than usual in the betting market. Even with the small field, we have some spots worth considering, and the talented group of golfers gives us a lot of options in the outright market.
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PGA Picks: Futures/Outright Winners
PGA Pick: Patrick Reed 25-1 (DraftKings)
Most of the big names are on the slate, so that means some short prices at the very top. Jon Rahm is 10-1 to win, which makes him the favorite, but there are a handful of the top-tier players all around 12-1 or shorter. Obviously these are the best players in the world, and I cannot knock anyone who wants to back them, but to me the value isn’t there at those prices. Down the card, Patrick Reed is back from Europe, and he is a much more reasonable 25-1.
Although Reed isn’t the favorite, the odds we get on him versus some of the other top players in the world have me interested in an outright play. He comes in off an impressive top-five showing in Europe at Wentworth, and before that he had a 13th-place finish at the U.S. Open. Reed is a grinder who can play in any condition and has one of the best short games on the PGA Tour. I worry about this devolving into a birdie fest, but again, that is something we really aren’t going to know with the lack of course history. If it plays harder than expected, that’s a big boost to Reed, who excels in tough conditions.
At 25-1, I’m willing to back Reed, who has a win at a WGC and certainly isn’t going to mind playing in a tough field. While the very top certainly has more win equity, I don’t believe Reed should be double them in price, and that is where the value comes in on the outright market. On the DFS side, Reed is an interesting tourney play especially if he doesn’t gain much traction leading up to the event.
PGA Pick: Sungjae Im 50-1 (DraftKings)
I bet Im last week at a similar number, and although he didn’t get the job done in Las Vegas, I still have interest in targeting him. The 50-1 number in these short fields is appealing, and this is still a dangerous player despite average-at-best recent form. Im is one of the more balanced players on tour with no glaring weakness to his game. He has a quality short game and pairs that with his world-class ball striking. He started slow last week at Shadow Creek, and that killed all hope of him getting in the mix. He closed Sunday with a 67 and flashed some of the form that has him worthy of consideration in this event. Im has gained with the irons in five straight events, and that consistency is going to produce some big results if it continues.
Im is 50-1, which for a 78-man field is good enough for me to take a position. He has shown he can compete against any field no matter the strength, and with the course being an unknown, it’s a good opportunity to take a few stabs with longer-priced players.
Top 10
PGA Pick: Cameron Smith +500 (DraftKings)
With only 78 players in the field, we aren’t going to get huge odds on any player to cash a top-10 ticket, but we still can look for some appealing spots in this market. There are a lot of PGA Tour regulars and guys with some wins on the resume at around 5-1 to get onto the first page of the leaderboard. One of those players is the Aussie Cameron Smith, who comes into this event playing consistently good golf.
We saw Smith last week just miss a top 10 with an 11th-place finish at the CJ Cup. He lost off the tee, which is no surprise, but he was positive in the other three categories. Just staying around zero strokes gained off the tee would be a win, as his short game is elite and his irons can heat up at times. This course is certainly not the longest, which benefits Smith, and 5-1 is a nice payoff for a top 10 where we still have some room even if he isn’t deep into contention come Sunday.
Matchup
There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player, and you can take several head-to-heads with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
PGA Pick: Rory McIlroy (+100) vs Xander Schauffele
We are going to the deep end of the pool here with two world-class players matching up. McIlroy is a straight even moneyline against Schauffele, who is coming off a near win at the CJ Cup last week. Both guys have all the skills needed to compete at any course, and with the five par 5’s, they should have plenty of birdie opportunities.
We know that McIlroy is a great driver of the ball, and that is going to translate at any course he plays. Last week once again he dominated off the tee, but a horrible closing nine on Sunday capped him at a 21st-place finish. His irons are the area of concern, but if he continues to drive the ball and make timely putts, he is going to give himself more opportunities to grab another win.
Schauffele, though he is a great player, is currently riding a ridiculous run with the short game and putter. Normally Schauffele leans on his tee-to-green game to get the job done, but lately the putter has masked what would be an underwhelming string of ball-striking performances. Over the last three tournaments, he has gained six strokes or more putting in each event. That is obviously going to result in strong finishes, but it will regress unless he picks up his ball striking. The markets have shifted, and McIlroy at +100 in this spot is too much to ignore.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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