Following Tony Finau’s playoff win over Cameron Smith at the Northern Trust, the FedEx Cup Playoffs continue with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club (par 72, 7,542 yards) in Owings Mills, Maryland. Tom Fazio designed this venue, and this week will be Caves Valley’s debut at the PGA level. As the second leg of the playoffs, only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup points gained an invite to the BMW Championship this week, and the top 30 golfers in the standings following this no-cut tournament will move onto the Tour Championship. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the BMW Championship.
Expert PGA Picks This Week: BMW Championship Odds & Best Bets
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.
Louis Oosthuizen (+2800, BetMGM)
Forget that Oosthuizen sat out the last two weeks with a neck injury and attack him at these long odds. He is in the midst of an incredible season, with four runner-up finishes, two of which came at majors, and he is the second-best player on the planet according to Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings. Oosthuizen also ranks fifth in strokes gained tee to green over his last 12 rounds and leads the tour in efficiency on 450-yard par 4’s this season, which sets him up perfectly for Caves Valley, where six of the 10 par 4’s land in this range.
Oosthuizen has contended at Fazio courses many times in the past, with a pair of top-10 finishes at Firestone Country Club and a runner-up at Quail Hollow for the 2017 PGA Championship.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500, PointsBet)
Cantlay is a perfect course fit for Caves Valley. All four of his career wins at the PGA level have been at courses with bentgrass greens, with three of these victories specifically coming on par 72s that are home to this green type. Also, Cantlay ranks sixth in total strokes gained over the last 100 rounds at no-cut events, and he has produced a pair of top-10s in four BMW Championship appearances. Cantlay’s outstanding form, with six top-25 finishes in his last seven starts, makes him a great betting value this week.
Kevin Na Top-10 (+550, William Hill)
Ranking 18th in the FedEx Cup standings, Na needs to post a high finish this week to remain in the top 30 and advance to the Tour Championship. As of late, he has been playing his best golf of the season, firing three top-10 finishes in his last four starts.
His ball striking has been superb, ranking ninth in strokes gained tee to green across his past 12 rounds, and Na also ranks seventh in strokes gained on par 4’s over this timeframe. Additionally, he has three career top-10s at the BMW Championships and is a true bentgrass specialist. In his last five attempts at tracks that feature this type of green, Na has finished in the top 15 four times.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.
