Following Xander Schauffele’s win at the Tokyo Olympics, the PGA season resumes this week at TPC Southwind (par 70, 7,238 yards) in Memphis, Tenn., for the 2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. This venue has hosted the St. Jude since 1958, and Justin Thomas is the defending champion after posting a winning score of -13 last year. As this is a WGC, there will be no cut this week and the field only consists of 66 players. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks for this week and Vegas betting odds for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
Expert PGA Picks & Odds: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played. Players are not rewarded by more or fewer rounds in the time period.
Brooks Koepka (+1200, William Hill)
Koepka needs to be included on betting cards this week. His recent form has been incredible with four top-six finishes in his past five starts, and Koepka loves making the trip to TPC Southwind every season. He won the WGC here by 3 strokes in 2019 and then was the runner-up to Thomas a year ago. For his seven attempts at this track, Koepka has produced four finishes inside the top three. Furthermore, Koepka has carded six top-five finishes in his last 10 starts on par 70s, and four of his nine wins on tour have come on this type of course.
Rory McIlroy (+2000, BetMGM)
McIlroy predictably struck the ball at a high level at the Olympics, gaining over two strokes off the tee and on approach. But the main factor that led to his fourth-place finish at Kasumigaseki Country Club was his effort on the greens with a new putter in his bag. After losing strokes with his TaylorMade Spider in three of his last four starts, McIlroy decided to go with a Scotty Cameron 009M in Tokyo, which is a very similar blade putter to the Scotty Cameron Newport that he used to win the first two majors of his career. The club change translated into McIlroy gaining 3.62 strokes putting, ranking him seventh for the tournament. Considering these results, one has to assume McIlroy will continue to roll with the 009M at the St. Jude, and if the hot putting stroke maintains, McIlroy could run away with a win this week.
He is an absolutely dominant player on par 70s, ranking second in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds on this type of design. McIlroy has finished inside the top seven twice at TPC Southwind in only four appearances at the venue.
Webb Simpson (+4000, BetMGM)
After missing back-to-back cuts, Simpson got back on track at the British Open. At Royal St. Georges, which is also a par 70, Simpson shot under par for two of his four rounds en route to a 19th-place finish. He was brilliant with his flat stick at the major, ranking fourth in average putts per round, and now Simpson returns to Bermuda greens at TPC Southwind, which is a huge boost. Simpson ranks second in the field in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds on par 70s with Bermuda greens. Unsurprisingly, he has been very successful at TPC Southwind, with a pair of top-three finishes in his last four starts at the venue, including a runner-up to Koepka in 2019.
Additionally, Simpson ranks fourth in total strokes gained across his last 100 rounds at no-cut events, and he ranks first on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance this season. Six of the last seven golfers to claim a win at TPC Southwind have finished inside the top six in fewest bogeys recorded during their victories, and this is a tremendous time to buy low on Simpson. He is the ninth-best player in the world according to Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings.
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