For the final event of the PGA regular season, Sedgefield Country Club (par 70, 7,131 yards) in Greensboro, N.C., hosts the Wyndham Championship this week. After this tournament, the FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off with the Northern Trust, and only the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup points will be gaining an invite to the tournament. Sedgefield Country Club, which was designed by Donald Ross, has been the only home of the Wyndham since 2008, and each of the last five champions in Greensboro has eclipsed 20 strokes under par. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks for this week and Vegas betting odds for the Wyndham Championship.
Expert PGA Picks & Vegas Odds: Wyndham Championship
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played. Players are not rewarded by more or fewer rounds in the time period.
Russell Henley (+3500, William Hill)
Henley ranks 27th in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings and is back on Bermuda greens this week at Sedgefield Country Club. He is at his best on this type of putting surface, and it is not even close. His three career wins have all come Bermuda, and he ranks fourth in total strokes gained over the last 100 rounds on par 70s with Bermuda greens.
Before missing the weekend by 1 stroke at Royal St. George’s last month, Henley had produced three top-20s in a row, and for the season, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on approach. All of the last five golfers to cash the top prize at the Wyndham ranked fourth or better in strokes gained on approach during their victories, and Henley finished ninth at Sedgefield last season.
Charl Schwartzel (+5000, PointsBet)
Schwartzel is fresh off a tie for second place at the 3M Open, which was not only his 10th made cut in his past 11 starts but also his best finish in over two years. He has gained at least four strokes tee to green in three consecutive starts and ranks fifth in strokes gained on par 4’s across his past 12 rounds. Each of the last two Wyndham champions have led the field in the strokes gained on the par 4’s at Sedgefield, and Schwartzel has excelled at this Ross design in the past. While he did miss the weekend here a year ago, Schwartzel finished 14th at the 2012 Wyndham and third in 2015. He showed at the 3M Open that he has the tools to contend at birdie fests, and these long odds do not reflect how well Schwartzel has been playing during this recent resurgence.
Hank Lebioda (+7000, BetRivers)
After making the cut and sitting at a comfortable 4-under heading into the weekend at the 3M Open, Lebioda was forced to withdraw prior to the third round. A few days later he revealed that he opted out of the event because his father was extremely ill and in the hospital. Thankfully, he was able to recover, and after taking a few weeks off to spend time with his family, Lebioda will now make his return at Wyndham Championship.
Not only was he in a strong position to make a run at the 3M Open before exiting, but he carded three straight finishes inside the top eight heading into that event. Over his last 12 rounds, Lebioda ranks first in birdie-or-better percentage, first in strokes gained putting and first in strokes gained on par 4’s 400 to 450 yards long. The latter stat particularly bodes well for Lebioda at Sedgefield, where eight of the 12 par 4’s land in this range and three of the past four winners have finished in the top three in efficiency on these specific holes. The bottom line is Lebioda was playing the best golf of his career before his father’s illness and is nearly a must-bet at these egregious odds. Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings have Lebioda ranked as the 69th-best player on the planet, which is 101 spots higher than his standard ranking and puts him in line to be one of the PGA betting picks this week.
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