After losing four straight games without Dennis Schroder, the Los Angeles Lakers should finally get the talented guard back for tonight’s matchup against the Trail Blazers. Sportsbooks favor the Lakers in the matchup, too, but time will tell if they can turn their losing slump around. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends and projections to help you find an edge on the game’s NBA betting picks market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks & Odds | Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Game Info
Portland Trail Blazers (18-13) at Los Angeles Lakers (22-11)
Date: Friday, Feb. 26, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, Calif.
Coverage: ESPN
The Lakers might be getting Schroder back, but he wasn’t enough for them to top the Blazers earlier in the year. Portland took the first matchup by an 8-point margin on the back of a 31-point showing from Damian Lillard. To be fair, Schroder did play well in that the matchup, as he finished with the second-most points for Los Angeles, but only Schroder, LeBron James, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Anthony Davis scored double-digit points.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Spread Trends and Prediction
The trends point to value on Portland tonight. The Blazers rank eighth against the spread with a 17-14 record. In contrast, the Lakers rank seventh worst with a 14-19 record against the spread. The Lakers have been even worse when favored at home; their 5-11 record against the spread in such situations ranks sixth-worst. Meanwhile, the Blazers have an 8-3 record against the spread when listed as road underdogs.
I calculate my own spread for each game using an NBA betting model based on pace and efficiency data. After adjusting for rest and recent performances, my model favors Los Angeles by just a 0.3-point margin, which points to considerable value on Portland. However, Schroder’s return may give the Lakers a small boost, so their recent data may not be super predictive. Keep that in mind before taking that number at face value.
It’s easy to take Portland here with both my model and the trends on the same side. I predict that Portland will cover the spread tonight.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Over/Under Trends and Prediction
While the trends point to clear value on the spread, they don’t point to much value on the total. Portland has the NBA’s eighth-highest over percentage (54.8%); Los Angeles has the second-lowest (36.4%). However, Los Angeles’ over percentage jumps to 56.2% in their games as home favorites. Portland’s over percentage ticks up to 72.7% in their games as road underdogs, too.
That said, these teams finished with 222 points the last time they met, and that’s exactly where the total has been set at some books. My model slightly favors the over against this line, as it projects both teams to combine for 222.7 total points.
Ultimately I would avoid the game total and play the point spread instead.
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Trail Blazers vs. Lakers NBA Betting Against the Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you’d like to side with the trends and my model, you can get the Trail Blazers as 5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook and SugarHouse — and you’ll get them a solid line (-108). You could also burn a half-point and get slightly better juice at BetMGM (-105). Should you disagree, you can get the Lakers as just 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM. You can keep track of any changes as tip-off approaches directly through OddsShopper.
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Trail Blazers vs. Lakers NBA Betting Over/Under Picks + Odds Shopping
I would avoid the total for this game. That said, if you think you have a compelling read on the over, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the lowest total at the best juice (-110). Should you favor the under, PointsBet has the highest total at the best juice (-105). Note that these lines will move as the night progresses, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
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