Identifying edges in the NBA betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper and the NBA Player Props Tool at Awesemo.com are here to help. This article focuses on the best NBA player prop bets, odds and NBA betting picks and predictions for tonight’s two-gamer and which sportsbook offers the best odds for them.
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Donovan Mitchell Under 28.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)
Coming off a nice 3-0 night on Monday, the goal is to keep the train rolling with another points prop. There is no question that Mitchell is trending up in minutes and production as he returned from a month-long absence for the final four games of the Jazz’s first-round series. But this is not the Grizzlies he will be facing this time around, but a staunch defensive unit in the Clippers that played at the third-slowest pace in the league during the regular season. That means fewer possessions and shots for Mitchell tonight, which is why there is a massive 67.5% return on investment for this prop according to the Awesemo Player Props Tool .
One important side bar: Wait until there is word on Mike Conley’s status before pulling the trigger here. If Conley is active, fire up the under on 28.5 points for Mitchell at will. And even if he is ruled out early in the day, there is room on the under here, although it won’t look nearly as enticing. General rule of thumb: Go one unit on the under with Conley in, half a unit with him out.
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Ben Simmons Under 8.5 Assists (-113, SugarHouse/DraftKings)
Not too dissimilar from Mitchell’s prop, the next NBA betting pick comes via an under that hinges slightly upon the availability of a teammate. That is not to say that Simmons can’t surpass 8.5 assists with Joel Embiid in the lineup, as he racked up 10 in 37 minutes of play alongside him during Game 1. But considering Simmons sported a 34.8% assist rate with Embiid off the floor as opposed to just 28.9% when they shared the court, there are more paths to Simmons falling short of this 8.5 number with Embiid in. And that’s exactly what to expect considering Embiid played a team-high 38 minutes in Game 1. Make sure to get word that Embiid is in before selecting this wager.
Clint Capela Over 12.5 Rebounds (-110, FanDuel)
After terrorizing the Knicks on the glass in the first round with zero outings below 12 rebounds, Embiid and the 76ers held Capela to only 10 in Game 1. Embiid is certainly more prohibitive on the glass than any center from the Knicks, but this prop is still too low based on his gaudy 25% rebound rate for the season. He will be called upon to match up with Embiid for every minute he can, but that makes this an easy plug-and-play, as it’s hard to see him playing anything less than 30 minutes barring foul trouble. That makes the over on his 12.5 rebounds an enticing final piece at the standard -110 odds.
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