Welcome, my friends, to a tradition unlike any other: betting on The Masters! It would have been a shame to miss out on Augusta’s glory in 2020, but fortunately the golf gods came to the rescue and blessed us with a November to remember. This article focuses on finding three bets to win — one favorite, one mid-range play and one long shot — to round out your golf betting cards for the week. We’ll be using the help of Awesemo’s OddsShopper to find the best PGA odds on these PGA picks. And when the dust (and rain) settles on Sunday, I hope one of them is accepting a green jacket so we can all party together.
[AUGUSTA]
Golf Betting Picks: Top Masters Odds + PGA Picks
1. Patrick Cantlay: 28-to-1
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We kick off the first of my three PGA picks with a number on an elite player I still can’t wrap my head around. While my official selection to put on the green jacket this week is Jon Rahm (+1100 best price), if you’re telling me I’ll get more than double the return on Patrick Cantlay (+2800), I’m taking that every single time and twice on Masters Sunday.
While the 2020 season was underwhelming for a golfer of his skill level, Cantlay has already changed the tide early in the 2020-2021 fall campaign. The 28-year-old product out of Southern California is coming off a ridiculous 23-under winning score at Sherwood Country Club in his last start, and now will see a golf course with similar characteristics: gettable par 5’s, massive undulation, and speedy greens. Also, it certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s coming off a victory against the same core of elite players he’s facing again this week.
Most importantly, I’m weighting strokes gained: tee-to-green more than normal this week. And in that win at the Zozo Championship, Cantlay bettered the field by a massive 8.3 strokes in that category. In fact, in his last five events, he’s averaged 5.4 strokes gained tee-to-green on the competition. If Cantlay can get hot with the flat stick on Augusta’s putting surfaces, a green jacket could be within reach. At 28-to-1, he’s my favorite betting value of the entire tournament.
2. Jason Day: 40-to-1
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There’s three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Jason Day will withdraw from golf tournaments. I don’t really mind, as that creates value on an elite talent in both daily fantasy and the betting markets like we saw at the Houston Open last week. Day put himself in contention with phenomenal ball-striking (7.4 strokes-gained tee-to-green) before fading with a one-over 71 final round. That was still good enough for a T-7 finish, and now he heads down Magnolia Lane to a course he’s fared extremely well at coming off his best result of the early 2020-2021 fall season.
Just how good is his course history? I’d argue some of the best in the field, having posted three Top-5 finishes in his nine Masters appearances and never once finishing outside the Top-30 with the exception of a WD in 2012. We know that Day can get hot with the putter at any given moment, and while I hate his odds got chopped nearly in half based on last week’s result, I still see value at this 40-1 number on the FanDuel Sportsbook. And if the back tightens up and he has to withdraw, so be it: we’re betting guys to win here, so there’s inherited risk already.
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3. Matt Wallace: 250-to-1
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When betting long shots at The Masters, there are three key things I try to hone in on: are they ball-strikers in decent form, have they posted a Top-5 in the past calendar year, and have they played in the Masters before. Matt Wallace checks all of those boxes, making him a decent flyer to pull off an Immelman/Willett-esque breakthrough performance.
Wallace has catapulted himself to 52nd in the Official World Golf Rankings this summer on the wings of some solid ball-striking. In his past twenty events in the U.S., he’s captured an average of 1.0 shots tee-to-green per event and 1.2 shots tee-to-green in his previous five. That was on full display at the Memorial in June, where he gained a whopping 7 strokes on the field tee-to-green on the way to a T-4 finish.
He’s also in great form of late as shown by his October results on the European PGA Tour. While we don’t get all the same data like we do over here, four made cuts in four events including a solo-second finish at the Scottish Open is a clear indicator he’s playing well. He hasn’t won on American soil before, but he’s got the ceiling to contend and that’s what we’re looking for in a deep dart throw. And despite missing the cut in last year’s Masters, he’s at least seen the place. Be sure to utilize PointsBet if you’re able to and lock in that 250-to-1 number.
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