A seven-game NBA Saturday is in store for us on a major sports weekend, and with that comes a bevvy of player props at our disposal, all broken down on OddsShopper. As we set out to identify any potential weaknesses in NBA odds, we’ll apply a combination of player stats, rotations, and team trends on-court in cross-reference to hone in on the best values for our NBA betting picks this Saturday. Games we’ll target here today are Los Angeles Lakers vs. Chicago Bulls and Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns, focusing on props for Will Barton and Dennis Schroder.
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The Western Conference-best Los Angeles Lakers head to the Windy City to take on the 7-8 Chicago Bulls, with some intriguing factors for consideration among betting picks. Recently transplanted point guard Dennis Schroder has fit in well with his newfound Lakers team, factoring in effectively on both ends of the court. Shifting to the Steals player prop subcategory on OddsShopper, we discover Schroder with a prop line of 1.5 steals and rewarding +170 odds-on the over. Looking at what Schroder has defensively done of late, this stands out as one of the better NBA betting values on Saturday’s seven-game endeavor.
In the eighth year of his career, Schroder’s averaging the second-most playing time since his days with Atlanta, logging 31.1 minutes per game and a 106.2 defensive rating this season. In tandem with said defensive rating is the stealing prowess of Schroder, engineering 24.1% of team steals for Los Angeles over his first 16 games. Looking into his more recent track record, Schroder has seen a spike in his steals over the past three games, averaging 2.66 steals over that specific time frame. Averaging 1.2 steals per game for the season, the latest uptick in the category for Schroder lends promise to the wager at stake, with some added incentives provided by today’s opponent.
Facing off with a Chicago Bulls team ranking second-to-last in the NBA in turnover percentage at 17%, Schroder is paved a wider lane en route to the excess of two steals on Saturday. Particularly looking at the Bulls’ susceptibility to steals, Chicago also ranks 29th overall against opposing point guards per the category, surrendering 2.6 steals per game to the position this season. Getting most of his rotational time with the starting unit, Schroder will see much of Bulls point guard Coby White, who provides an 11.8 turnover ratio to the equation. With a 70% increase on even-money odds, the NBA betting value on Schroder achieving two steals at +170 is far too hard to turn the page on.
+145, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook
Less than a day removed from an overtime thriller road win in Phoenix, the Denver Nuggets play the second-leg of a back-to-back against the Suns team they just narrowly defeated 130-126. Following impressive performances by both Nikola Jokic (30 PTS, 10 REB, 8 AST) and Jamal Murray (18 PTS, 9 AST, 3 STL), the Nuggets may turn to their role players a bit more in pursuit of their road sweep of Phoenix. Looking over to the three-point player prop subcategory, we wander into favorable +145 betting odds-on the over of just two or more three-pointers made by Nuggets small forward Will Barton. With word of warning considering Phoenix being atop the NBA against the three-point category, the value in the rewarding odds for Denver’s second-most deep shooter by volume still appear enticing to the wager.
Averaging 1.5 three-pointers made per game this season, Barton has hit as many as six long-balls in one performance (vs. BKN) along with a 38.6% three-point rate. With 39% of Barton’s scoring coming from beyond the arc, the nature of Barton’s wing role on offense adds incentive to the 45% even-money bonus on the betting odds provided and making the desired outcome appear less outlandish. While Phoenix has held Barton to 1-4 from three-point range over their two matches this season, Barton averaged three deep-balls made per game in the four games prior to yesterday, while averaging nearly six attempts per game in that time frame. Often squaring off with Suns forward Mikal Bridges in this matchup, Barton gets some breathing room from three-point land (should the shot volume apply) as Bridges has allowed a 34.4% three-point rate to opponents defended.
The NBA betting odds in place for Barton to secure two or more three-pointers, while the line provides no certainty, offers plenty of value worth entertaining at such a feasibly achievable total to surpass. While Barton’s potential from three-point land may be blurred by the Suns allowing a league-best 10.5 three-pointers made per game this season, Barton’s matchup in addition to his recent shot volume from three-point territory make for considerable value among Saturday’s NBA betting picks.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more picks and predictions.
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