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Sean B’s Best NBA Playoff Bets Today: Warriors vs. Nuggets Picks & Predictions | Thursday 4/21/22

Sean Blazek



Wednesday’s NBA playoff action did not disappoint. The Celtics rallied in a comeback win on their home court to move to 2-0 against Brooklyn. Philadelphia took a commanding 3-0 lead over the Raptors on a game-winning three-pointer from Joel Embiid. The night closed out with the Chicago Bulls pulling off the upset in Milwaukee over the Bucks behind 41 points from DeMar DeRozan. Thursday resumes with three Western conference showdowns. Let’s dive into the best NBA bets today, picks and NBA betting tips for Thursday, April 21.

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Best NBA Bets Today: Game Tips & Betting Predictions

Warriors vs. Nuggets Best Bet

The Golden State Warriors head to Denver after defending their home court with two convincing wins over the Nuggets to start the first-round series. The Nuggets will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when they take on the Warriors on Thursday night at Ball Arena. These teams met four times during the regular season with Denver winning three of four games, although Golden State was without several key players that are available in the playoffs. The Nuggets need to come out firing to avoid falling into a 3-0 deficit, but all the momentum is clearly with the Warriors who looked dominant through the first two games.

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The Warriors are heating up at just the right time and their offense cannot be stopped. Golden State has scored 123 or more points in four of their last five games. With their lineup finally getting healthy, the Warriors have taken things up a notch to begin the postseason and look like a legit threat out of the Western Conference. Jordan Poole has stepped his game up to another level over the past month, making a statement on why he should be included as one of the Warriors’ Splash Brothers. Poole has drained 11 3-pointers in the first two games of this series and is now averaging 30.8 points over his last 10 games. Stephen Curry has come off the bench in his first two games back but has still been able to make an impact putting up impressive numbers on limited minutes as he ramps back up to full speed. Andre Iguodala (neck) is probable for Thursday’s Game 3. If the Warriors can continue to spread out their scoring, the Nuggets will be in danger of getting sent home in the first round.

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The Nuggets are desperate for a win and will do everything in their power to try to avoid a second straight year of getting swept in the playoffs. Nikola Jokic is having to carry the offense and showed some frustrations in their most recent outing after getting locked down by Draymond Green finishing 9-20 from the field, with the Nuggets center eventually getting ejected from the game after a second technical foul. During the regular season, Denver’s offense averaged 112.7 points per game on 57.5% shooting. Their defense is allowing 110.4 points per game on 54.9% shooting. They have been unsuccessful in defending the three-ball to start this series, allowing 33 3-pointers made through two games to the Warriors. There are few answers on defense when trying to defend three elite sharpshooters in Klay Thompson, Curry and Poole. The Nuggets are still without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray. Austin Rivers left Game 2 with back discomfort and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. The Nuggets do not have enough depth to consistently score on a Warriors defense that ranks second on the season in defensive rating and effective field goal percentage allowed. Denver will need their role players to step up and contribute on both ends of the floor to relieve some of that pressure off Jokic’s shoulders. Expect they will be able to increase their contributions playing in front of their home crowd on Thursday.

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This series is a battle between two teams that ranked top three in the regular season in effective field goal percentage. The first two games saw totals of 230 and 232 points. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. In six matchups this season the total is averaging 223.3 points with four of the six games exceeding 222 points. Expect Denver to come out with urgency knowing that they will need to put up buckets if they want any chance of staying competitive on Thursday. Denver has shown to have no answer for defending the deep shot, so anticipate the Warriors to continue to rain from deep. Ride the trend and take the over tonight.

Best NBA Bet for Today’s Game: Total Over 222.5 Points

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Sean Blazek (aka SweatBets) has contributed to Awesemo since November 2021 and is currently an NBA Betting Content Creator. His articles can be found on Awesemo as well as OddsShopper under the NBA Betting Articles section. Sean has a knack for identifying value in spreads and totals using an analytical approach to find his Best Bets. Follow him on Twitter @SweatBets and get ready to cash.

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